Will MAGA make Canada liberal again?
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Canadians are heading to vote in one of the most important elections in its history, with many believing its very existence is at stake as Donald Trump pursues his goals of the country becoming the 51st State. But has the president turned the tide of the vote against himself?
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In brief…
- Polls suggest the Canadian general election will be won by the Liberal Party of Canada, now led by Mark Carney, as anti-Trump sentiment grows and has seen public opinion swing wildly from support of the conservative party.
- Voters tell The News Agents this is because of anti-Trump sentiment in Canada, with the president having repeatedly spoken of his aims to make it the ‘51st state’.
- Jon Sopel says it is “scarcely believable” that one of the determining factors in the election is whether Canada continues to exist as an independent nation.
What’s the story?
Canada is heading to vote in one of the most important elections of its history – as its very existence is threatened by the administration of President Donald Trump.
Since returning to The White House in January 2025, Trump has made no secret of his intention to turn Canada into the 51st state.
He had similar intentions for the Gulf of Mexico, planning to change that to the Gulf of America – and if you look that up today on Google Maps, it is now renamed.
But it’s one thing to rename a stretch of water, it’s quite another to claim an entire country, especially when that country is full of people whose very sovereignty is now under threat – and many who believe that Trump’s return to power is now having the exact opposite effect in the country he so desperately wants to claim as his own.
It has also faced some of the highest tariffs imports imposed under the Trump administration, facing a 25% levy on every product that crosses the border.
How Donald Trump pushed Canada's conservative voters to the left
How has Trump already impacted Canada?
As yet, Trump’s comments on bringing Canada under the American flag have proven to be little more than idle threats – with the president instead focusing on tariffs (tanking the US economy) and the war in Ukraine (achieving nothing so far).
Polling suggests the winners of the April election will be the Liberal Party of Canada, under the new leadership of Mark Carney and if this comes to pass, Jon Sopel says it would be the "most extraordinary political comeback anyone has seen anywhere".
Just a few months ago, under the leadership of Justin Trudeau, the party trailed its right-wing rivals by more than 20 points in opinion polls, with Jon adding that "political obituaries" had already been penned to mark its demise.
The Liberals seemed set to lose the election to the Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, an openly pro-Trump politician, but since America set its sights on its northern neighbour, everything changed.
And, it appears, it's largely due to growing anger about Donald Trump.
Recent polling suggests 40% of Canadians consider Canadian independence as the biggest theme of the election, only behind concerns for the country's economy.
"It seems scarcely believable that the central issue in this election has become whether Canada continues to exist as a nation," says Jon.
And it's believed many conservative supporters in Canada will instead cast a vote for the liberals, so heightened is the concern about Trump.
Could Canada still turn Conservative?
In the days just before the election, polls put the liberals' lead somewhere between 2-4% over conservative rivals, suggesting a clear favourite in a tight race – but one which could result in a hung parliament – or perhaps prove the pollsters wrong entirely.
"The polls are tightening a bit now, which is interesting," Jon says.
"What you're hearing from conservative supporters is: 'Hang on, but we've watched this movie before' – they saw what happened thinking the polls were right in the American election in 2024, and Kamala Harris lost.
"They think the same thing is going to happen here. Don't count the Conservatives out just yet."
He says supporters of Poilievre have been seen wearing MAGA hats with maple leaves on, highlighting that there are some Canadians very keen to be brought under Trump's wing.
But, he adds, he believes Canadians who want the country to become part of America represent a tiny proportion of the population.
"I think what everyone wants is for Canada to survive and thrive," he says.
"They just don't quite know how to deal with Donald Trump and Mark Carney has filled that gap brilliantly by coming in to replace Trudeau and also putting distance between himself and Trudeau, which if you compare it to the American example of Kamala Harris taking over from Joe Biden, she totally failed.
"Harris said she was something new, but couldn't articulate in what way she was."
Did Mark Carney snub The News Agents' Jon Sopel in Canada?
What The News Agents learned in Toronto
Jon recently visited Canada to speak to voters in the election, who spoke openly about their disdain for Trump – and how they were voting strategically in the election.
"This is a consequential election for Canada, and it is not about party," said one voter.
"It is about finding that individual, or trusting in an individual who will take this country where it needs to go – and that is to protect us."
And she tells Jon that there are many voters across Canada who are shifting their support this week to the Liberal Party, in order to keep their country independent from the US.
Others told Jon they felt "disappointed" with America, and their sadness that Canada felt the need to take these feelings to the voting booth to take "serious action" to prevent Trump's moves on their country.
"I think a lot of people have decided that they need to vote against him instead of for the party they normally vote for," another voter told Jon.
"In the past, I was a very strong New Democratic Party voter, but I'm trying to make a strategic vote for this election."
It's not just among voters – Jon describes seeing burger joints in Toronto with signs in windows reading "proudly serving Canadians with Canadian beef" and the Canadian flag flying across the city.
"There is a national pride, a resurgence, and the thing about Canada is that people are scrupulously polite," he adds.
"It feels so different from the other side of the border – it just feels a much friendlier, warmer country."
But, he adds, no one should mistake the perceived Canadian kindness for indifference to what's happening.
"They are furious about the idea that Donald Trump wants to annex Canada and turn it into the 51st state.
"They are proud of being Canada. They are proud of being Canadians.
"It's remarkable we've got a general election about whether a sovereign nation, a member of the United Nations, will continue to exist or not because of its so-called closest ally on the southern side of the border."
Why these voters want to 'make Canada great again'
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