Has Canada found the leader to take on Trump?
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Former Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney will succeed Justin Trudeau as leader of Canada’s Liberal Party and the country’s next Prime Minister, but how will he deal with the country’s biggest threat - Donald Trump?
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In brief:
- Mark Carney has won leadership of Canada's Liberal Party with 86% of the vote and will become Prime Minister, with elections due by October.
- Carney has taken a strong stance against Trump's recent threats and tariffs, declaring Canada will never become "the 51st state" and maintaining retaliatory tariffs until "America shows respect."
- Trump's aggressive policies toward Canada have inadvertently boosted support for liberal politics, with Liberal Party polling rising from 21.9% to 30.8%, and similar trends observed in Mexico and France.
What’s the story?
Mark Carney has won the leadership race to become the next leader of Canada’s Liberal party, replacing Justin Trudeau, who has held the position for nine years.
Carney will be sworn in as Canada’s Prime Minister in the coming days.
The 59-year-old won the race with 86% of the vote, despite not having any experience as an MP or cabinet minister.
Carney’s background is in banking. He started his career as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs, before becoming Governor of the Bank of Canada in 2008, when he was faced with the global financial crisis.
Five years later he was headhunted by then UK chancellor George Osborne to become the first non-British governor of the Bank of England - and worked to reassure markets when the pound tumbled after Brexit.
“He is, more than anything, somebody who actually loves a crisis,” Emily Maitlis says.
“He enjoys a crisis. He's a technocrat, he's a bureaucrat.”
His experience in dealing with economic turbulence could prove useful as Carney faces possibly his biggest challenge yet - taking on President Trump in the tariff wars and trying to keep Canada from becoming the 51st state of America.
“I know how to manage crises … in a situation like this, you need experience in terms of crisis management, you need negotiating skills,” Carney said during a leadership debate in February.
However, Carney may not be Prime Minister for long. The country is due to have a general election by 20 October, with Carney hinting that he may call it as soon as the end of March.
How will Mark Carney deal with Donald Trump?
Jon Sopel and Emily Maitlis describe Carney as “chiseled, good looking, dapper, urbane and smart.”
“Those are the sort of things that Trump quite likes,” Jon adds.
“He will respect the fact that Mark Carney went to Harvard, went to Oxford, went to Goldman Sachs, was the ice hockey goalie, so he's kind-of tough as well.
“I think that that will play well.”
Being tough is a requirement for Canada’s next Prime Minister, as the country faces what Emily calls an “existential crisis,” with Trump repeatedly referring to outgoing President Trudeau as “governor” and threatening to make Canada the 51st state of America.
Following his win, Canada’s new leader had a clear response to Trump’s proposal.
“Canada never, ever, will be part of America in any way, shape or form,” Carney told crowds of supporters.
Emily observes that in his victory speech, Carney didn’t sound at all scared of Trump.
“Everything that you heard in his speech is about a man who is bullish, who's going to take him on, who doesn't want to be told that Canada is the 51st state.”
Carney also used the speech to respond to the 25% tariffs that the US imposed on most Canadian goods last Tuesday, saying he will keep Canada’s retaliatory tariffs in place until “America shows us respect”.
As much as Trump might admire the ‘tough guy’ approach Carney’s started the new gig with, Emily suspects that Trump’s attack line for Carney will be that he is a “slightly technocratic chap” who “isn’t in touch with the people.”
Carney must continue to “be tough and to stand up for Canada's interests,” Jon says.
“I think that is Carney's playbook, and it's a smart one.”
What do the polls say about Canada’s upcoming general election?
Carney succeeded Justin Trudeau as the latter’s popularity was under significant decline - which is what put him under pressure to resign as party leader.
After nine years in leadership, Trudeau’s Liberal Party saw waning support in the polls in 2023 and into 2024, with a poll by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) on 20 January 2025 (the day of Trump’s inauguration) putting the Liberals on 21.9% while the Conservatives - led by Pierre Poilievre - received 44.8%.
Since then, Trump’s threat to make Canada the 51st state of America and 25% tariffs have caused many Canadians to have a change of heart.
The polls have seen an uptick for the Liberal Party, with the latest averages now showing 30.8% of Canadians supporting the Liberals and 40.3% sticking with the Conservatives.
“The Liberal Party is suddenly back in the race,” Jon says, adding the spike can be attributed to Canadians “expressing deep unease about some of the things that Donald Trump is saying and doing.”
Emily Maitlis agrees; “Donald Trump has done more for Canada's Liberal Party than he could ever want.”
Trump’s inadvertent boost to liberal politics extends beyond Canada’s borders, Jon points out, noting that Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum’s latest approval ratings are 85%.
“No one gets approval ratings of 85%. Why are they so high? Because she's being seen to stand up to Donald Trump, and her people like it,” he says.
Jon adds that President Macron’s approval ratings in France are ticking upwards and Keir Starmer receiving strong support in the weeks following his meetings with Trump and President Zelensky.
“The Liberal Party in Canada was in the toilet,” Jon says. “Its poll ratings were absolutely catastrophic. It was heading for a landslide defeat.”
“Donald Trump, far from slaying the liberal order, is reviving it.”
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