How does Labour respond to the rise of Reform?
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How does the Labour government respond to the rise of Reform and its popularity among voters – and can it unite to face the threat of Nigel Farage, or is the party split on what its future holds?
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Read time: 6 mins
In brief…
- Labour says it will deliver its promises “faster”, following Reform UK’s success in local elections, but there have been calls from its own MPs to change course entirely on unpopular decisions since coming to power.
- The News Agents say Labour is unlikely to reverse plans such as the cut to winter fuel payments so as not to show signs of weakness, especially with more fractious cuts to be potentially made in coming months.
- They add Reform is being treated as a new political phenomenon, despite essentially being the same project pushed by Nigel Farage since UKIP.
What’s the story?
The May local elections demonstrated the surging popularity of Nigel Farage and Reform UK, and have thrown both Labour and the Conservatives into turmoil.
Reform won 677 seats, the Tories lost 674 and Labour lost 187, and while the leading two parties still boast thousands of councillors across the UK, the growth in Reform sets a precedent for how the country may vote in a future general election.
The local election results have led to a number of key Labour figures to criticise its actions since coming to power in July 2024 – including cuts to the winter fuel allowance and its Net Zero goals.
But the criticism has also highlighted confusion and division within the government, with some warning against a lurch to the right to rival Reform, and others claiming the government needs to be tougher on migration. It showcases a party divided about its past, present and future.
"Labour is having what feels like a wobble," says Emily Maitlis.
"They don't know whether to shun Reform, embrace Reform – and which policies they might have to change to do so."
Was cutting winter fuel payments Labour's "cardinal sin?"
How is Labour dealing with the rise of Reform?
After the results of the local elections, Keir Starmer promised he would not change the course of the Labour government, but instead said he would go "further and faster" to hit its targets.
But some believe it's the targets that are the problem, not the speed with which they are being achieved.
10 Downing Street has confirmed it will not reverse its unpopular cut to the winter fuel payments, cited by some of its own MPs as a potential reason for voter disillusionment in the government.
"The problem with the winter fuel cut is that it only saves about 1.5 billion – and if you reverse that, you've basically shown that you don't really trust Rachel Reeves," says Emily.
"It was her first political move as Chancellor, and you'd open the door to all the other things that people hate, whether it's the farmers and inheritance tax, or employers' National Insurance contributions.”
She adds that Labour's 2024 campaign pledge not to raise taxes is "haunting" the government, and doing so now could "quietly" make its biggest problems go away.
Lewis Goodall believes the main reason Labour won't reverse its winter fuel payment cuts is because of an upcoming Parliamentary vote on PIP payments, and not wanting to show any signs of weakness ahead of that – as well as knowing it will be even more unpopular with its own MPs.
"If they retreat on this, then before you've even begun the next parliamentary and political battle – which does raise serious money – you've alerted to your brittleness and your frailty, and they're afraid of doing it," Lewis says.
Instead, what the government has shown is a willingness to tip-toe around Reform UK, its policies and suggestions from its representatives – such as Andrea Jenkyns’, Reform UK’s mayor-elect of Greater Lincolnshire, suggestion that migrants should be housed in tents after entering the UK.
"You're going to see this rinse-and-repeat dilemma that No.10 is facing between moving closer to Reform and actively rejecting – and being seen to reject – their ideas," Lewis adds.
"Housing asylum seekers in tents won't poll terribly well with the public. Wait for the stuff that polls better and see where No.10 goes with that."
"We treat Reform as if they're a new party - they aren't"
Will Reform UK face increased scrutiny now it has local power in the UK?
Nigel Farage first entered politics with UKIP, followed by the Brexit Party and eventually Reform – but it's only in his most recent reinvention that his divisive, populist politics has gained serious traction.
"We treat Reform as if it's a new party, and it very much isn't," says Emily.
She says all previous iterations of Farage’s political parties consisted of “the same leader, the same clothes, the same rhetoric. That is something the government would actually do well to remember."
"It is the same party that has done so much damage under a different name to this country already," she adds.
But while Reform UK has been around for years under various other names, its success at last week's local elections signals the first moment when it – and Farage – must actually take responsibility for official actions, at least at local level.
"They will be running council services now, and that may bring a degree of accountability where we can see what it's done," says Jon Sopel.
But Lewis doubts that the national press will take any interest in the bin collections or the state of pot-holes in Reform-run council areas, and says the demise of local press in the UK will mean little scrutiny at local level either.
And when the actions of populist leaders – such as Donald Trump – do come under media scrutiny, it makes almost no difference to their popularity.
"With Trump, when some of his policies we know go catastrophically wrong, it doesn't touch the sides," Lewis says.
"And if it doesn't touch the sides with Trump, then I fail to see how it's going to touch the sides with what they're doing in County Durham or in Staffordshire."
Emily says that while polling shows that many Reform UK supporters are casting their votes because they want to "kick the government", rather than for any deep affection for Farage and his politics, the media must also take some responsibility for the rise of right-wing populism in the UK.
"This is on us in the media, and it's about the way the media frames these parties as well," she says.
"I think we are in danger of saying; 'wow, people are listening, this is brand new. They realise that everyone's fallen out of love with the main parties.'
"This framing that they have got the offer that no one else has, I think, is really wrong."
And, Emily adds, no matter how angry people are at some of Labour's policies and the "implosion" of the Conservative Party, she does not believe Reform's success means voters are "in love with Farage".
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