Local elections: Has Reform replaced the Tories as the UK’s opposition party?
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Reform UK has won a huge number of seats in the UK’s local elections, with Conservatives in particular suffering heavy losses. What does this mean for the changing face of UK politics?
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Read time: 6 mins
In brief…
- Reform UK has scored a huge victory in the UK’s local elections, claiming hundreds of councillor seats along with a new MP and its first Mayor.
- The News Agents say much discussion and analysis of these results is now positioning Reform as the main opposition party to the Labour government, and highlight the major changes the Tories need to retain any place on the political map.
- They add that Reform is riding a wave of political discontent with the UK’s two-party system, and right now seems like an “unstoppable force”.
What’s the story?
British politics, it seems, has never moved faster than it has in the past ten months.
After 14 years of Tory government, in July 2024 Labour swept to victory in the general election. In May 2025, that decisive win now seems deeply unstable after huge success for Reform UK in local elections.
The Nigel Farage-led party is the success story of the night, winning at least 318 councillor seats across the UK, with some votes still to be counted, as well as gaining its fifth MP in the Runcorn by-election, with Sarah Pochin taking just six votes more than Labour to claim a seat Labour won in 2024 with a 14,696 vote majority.
Reform also won its first Mayoral vote, with former Tory MP Andrea Jenkins winning in Greater Lincolnshire with 42% of the vote. Following her victory, she pledged to make migrants sleep in tents, saying if people sleeping under canvas is “good enough for France, they should be good enough for here in Britain.”
Lewis Goodall describes Farage today as "pretty much the only man who is happy in British politics".
He says these results showcase the "hyper fragmentation" taking place in British politics as disillusionment translates into votes against the country's traditional leading parties.
The Conservatives lost at least 260 seats, Labour lost 89, Lib Dems gained 38, and the Greens won 12.
Some votes still remain to be counted.
How has Labour responded to the results?
Minister for the Armed Forces Luke Pollard tells The News Agents he is disappointed and frustrated with the Runcorn result, but describes it as "just another one of those turbulent by-elections".
"It's not unusual for any government to see people vote against them in local elections," he tells Jon Sopel and Lewis.
"That doesn't necessarily always carry forward to what might happen in any future general election."
In 2024 Labour faced criticism for scrapping the winter fuel payments for pensioners, and this action has come under scrutiny once again as potentially its least popular move since the 2024 election.
Pollard says many Labour MPs were not expecting the government to do this.
"Politicians don't like doing unpopular things as a general rule, because they like getting re-elected. They like the easy answers.
"But we've seen 14 years of easy answers under the Tories."
He denies the Labour government is in-part to blame for the popularity of Reform in the local elections, and challenges the right-wing group to share policies for its promises, and to see those promises facing more scrutiny.
Some of his colleagues have been less diplomatic in their responses.
Labour MP Kim Johnson says the UK is heading toward an "extreme right-wing government" if the ruling party cannot offer "bold, hopeful policies that rebuild trust."
Diane Abbott says the Labour leadership should be "listening to voters on winter fuel payments, welfare cuts, the cost of living, the NHS and energy bills," accusing it of "attacking our own voters’.
Nadia Whittome is calling for Labour to "end its obsession with chasing the far-right on immigration, which only bolsters Reform."
What do the local election results mean for the Tories?
In the discussion around Runcorn, and all local election results, Lewis says the conversation has become one where Reform is being discussed as the de-facto opposition party to the Labour government – but perhaps with good reason.
"What we're clearly seeing is the Reform Party taking the place of the Conservative Party as the main opposition force to Labour in these seats," he says.
"There's no doubt these results are bad for Labour, because what you're seeing with Reform is you're seeing them split the Labour vote. What you're seeing with the Tories is they're supplanting the Conservative vote, which is a different magnitude of problem.
So while there may be concern among Labour MPs right now, that's nothing to what's going on behind the scenes on the shadow benches.
"There are lots of unhappy, worried Labour MPs, but they don't think it's existential. They don't think it's terminal. They think they can turn it around," Lewis adds.
"Tory MPs are sending messages in endless WhatsApp groups to each other – and to journalists – saying this is what terminal decline looks like. We are one bad move away from being dead, and therefore we've got to seriously look at whether Kemi Badenoch is the right person to – never mind get to the next election and win it – but survive as leader to the next election."
Jon says the Conservative Party needs to make "significant changes" if it continues to exist.
"These local council elections look like they are going to be a moment where the Conservatives are going to go into panic mode and don't know what they don't know what to do next."
What’s The News Agents’ take?
As Reform celebrates a huge victory, it may not only be the Conservatives that may now look to change. Lewis says these results could also impact how Labour moves forward – and how its MPs behave.
"It now gives license to critics of Keir Starmer to actually come out of the woodwork and break cover," he says.
"Since the election, the discipline for the Labour government has actually been extremely strong – it has been command and control.
"There are Starmer critics out there, but they've largely decided to keep their counsel because they didn't see a moment or didn't see an opening in Starmer."
This, he believes, could be the opening they've been waiting for – but can either legacy party make the changes needed to take on a party with the groundswell of support Reform is currently enjoying?
"There is a feeling that Reform is becoming something of an unstoppable force," says Jon.
"Now, maybe when people have the experience of Reform in power, as they will be in Lincolnshire, that people might come to a different conclusion. But I think people are a long way from that.
"I think that Reform can still continue to ride this wave of popular discontent that seems so widespread with both Labour and Tories."
And while Labour maintain their huge government majority, Lewis says there is now a "profound malaise" in the UK about its leaders.
"We know that there wasn't a great positive affirmation for Labour at the 2024 election, but there was a sense that it was their turn to see if they could sort things out," he says.
"What matters is the trend, and what we can see in the trend, in terms of the polls, which is that Reform clearly is enjoying a sustained rise.
"What these results are doing, and what Runcorn has done, is continue that sense of momentum."
Listen to the latest episode of The News Agents.
