Latest US polls: The presidential race will be ‘fought in inches, not miles’
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The latest polls show the race is extremely tight for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but could one issue give a clear advantage?
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In brief:
- The latest polls show a very tight race in the US presidential election, with Kamala Harris slightly ahead of Donald Trump nationally (48% vs 45%).
- While Harris leads in likeability, Trump has an advantage on economic issues, having presented more detailed economic policies compared to Harris.
- The election outcome may be decided by a small number of votes in key states, similar to the 2020 election, with all current polls falling within the margin of error.
What’s the story?
The polls in the US presidential election are mostly telling the same story - that this is going to be a very, very tight race.
The latest poll shows Kamala Harris with 48% of the national vote against Donald Trump’s 45%.
A tight contest is not unusual in a US presidential race.
“Presidential elections in America are fought in inches, not miles,” Emily says on the latest episode of The News Agents USA.
That’s because there is usually a ceiling on what proportion of the vote a candidate, Democrat or Republican, gets in the States.
That ceiling is roughly 47% or 48%, so looking at the current figures, candidates will be hoping to move the dial a little as a few per cent.
“Maybe 1% of that is undecided and isn't going to vote at all, and maybe 1% of that are the people that you're really, really talking to and targetting.”
The only clear message we can see, as shown in the poll above, is that by Joe Biden dropping out of the race, the Democrats are in with a fighting chance again.
What could give Trump the advantage?
While Harris has the overall edge in likeability ratings, Trump has a narrow lead on the economy.
And as Emily notes: ‘for most people, I guess the economy is still ‘the thing,’ Emily says.
“I've got to say that Donald Trump has spoken in more detail about economic policy than she has,” Jon says.
“He did a speech in Savannah, Georgia. He was talking about the establishment of special economic zones, where they would pay a lower rate of corporation tax, at 15% as opposed to 21% that anyone who wants to come and manufacture in America, there will be subsidies for them.”
“We saw from 2016 to 2020 the very limited success he had in bringing back manufacturing jobs, but at least he is setting out a plan. And I think that that is something where he still has a march over Kamala Harris.”
The question is, will Trump’s favourability on the topic of the economy translate into votes and therefore, a win?
Does Donald Trump really believe he won last night's debate?
The News Agents take
Emily weighs up this question: “If you are just thinking about the economy, even if you don't particularly like Trump, then you will probably vote for Trump.
“I guess the flip side of that is she might just close the gap, because in a normal race, if somebody was 11 points behind on the economy, they would be 11 points behind in the polls everywhere.”
But Harris isn’t, the polls are at a near deadlock, meaning it’s difficult to draw any compelling conclusion from them.
"Trying to pick [the polls] apart and say: ‘Harris has gone on and catapulted into the lead’, or ‘Trump has now reasserted himself and pushed himself into the lead decisively’, that hasn't happened,” Jon says.
This means that the outcome of the election could come down to a handful of votes in some states, just as it did in 2020, when Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidential election in Georgia since 1992 and in Arizona since 1996.
In Georgia, the majority Biden won was 11,779 votes, in Arizona, it was 10,457.
“Out of 5 million people voting, it is astonishing how tight that was, and that was the same in Arizona, and there's every possibility that it will be the same again.” Jon explains.
“Everything is still within the margin of error,” says Emily.
Listen to the full episode of The News Agents USA.
