Iran strikes Israel: What will Benjamin Netanyahu’s ‘obvious’ response be?
| Updated:
Middle East expert Mark Urban tells The News Agents what an Israel response to Iran’s missile strike may look like, and why escalating violence is “history repeating itself”.
Listen to this article
In brief…
Read time: 3 mins
- A response from Israel to Iran’s missile strike is “obvious”, but it’s uncertain how extreme it will be.
- Iran’s nuclear program could be targeted, but expert Mark Urban doubts Israel could be fully confident in striking key munitions.
- The UK government has pledged its support, once again, to Israel’s right to defend itself.
What's happened so far?
"It's obvious Netanyahu is going to do something," author and journalist Mark Urban tells The News Agents, the day after Israel came under attack from more than 180 Iranian missiles.
It marked a major escalation in hostilities in the Middle East, which have been ongoing since Hamas launched its 7 October attack on Israel in 2023.
A spokesperson for the Israel Defence Force said that most Iran missiles were intercepted, and promised there would be "consequences" for the neighbouring country's actions.
Urban tells The News Agents there is "no reason" to doubt Israel's statements, and that we should believe its experts until there is proof otherwise.
He says any doubt may come from Israel's claims that Iranian missiles were stopped by the country's defences, rather than missing their mark or other reasons.
"I would think dozens – if not scores – got through to their intended targets, which were, by and large, Israeli air bases," Urban says.
"Israel has ways of protecting the civilian population. They are a harder country to harm than, say, the UK, which has virtually none of that."
On the same night, 6 were killed and 10 wounded in a terrorist attack in Israel when two men, reportedly armed with an assault rifle and a knife, attacked civilians in the city of Jaffa.
A Palestinian man was the only fatality from Iran’s missile attack on Israel.
Iran's attack is the most significant assault Israel has faced in a year, and is the second time it has launched an attack, following a small-scale shelling in April 2024.
Hezbollah security "extraordinary" around leaders, expert says
What is the UK's reaction?
Keir Starmer has said the UK "stands fully behind Israel's right to defend its country and its people against threats."
"We stand with Israel and we recognise her right to self-defence in the face of this aggression," he said, describing the situation in the Middle East as being "on the brink" of all-out war.
I completely condemn Iran's attack on Israel this evening. pic.twitter.com/cj2R6o5Lfd
— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) October 1, 2024
What happens next?
Urban is certain Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will retaliate – it's just a case of how extreme that retaliation will be.
He suggests this could range from a small-scale military strike, to an attack on Iran’s nuclear program, which would result in a “heavy” counter-attack from Iran.
Iran’s nuclear sites exist “deep underground”, which could make targeting these difficult for Israel, but also mean there is less threat to the Iranian population of any damage from an attack of this sort.
"I think the real question is: can Israel do this on its own with a high degree of confidence that they've destroyed significant parts of the Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
"I'm not sure they can."
His main concern is the likely rise of civilian casualties if Israel moves from missile strikes to a ground campaign, saying previous invasions in the region have seen the death-toll rocket when troops hit the ground.
Israel’s recent ground invasion of Lebanon is – its leaders state – to push Hezbollah back behind the Litani River. But this, Urban says, is a case of “history repeating itself”, since this was the goal of its first assault on Lebanon in 1978 when it tried to push Palestinian armed groups behind the river, as well as the subject of a UN Security Council resolution from 2006, which states Hezbollah should not be south of the river.
But as Emily Maitlis points out, Hezbollah are not a group known for sticking to UN resolutions.
“Some of the wilier Israeli commentators have said during the past 24 hours that Israel is really good at getting into Lebanon – but not so good at getting out," Urban says.
"Israelis managed to keep control of many things when they were just doing airstrikes.
"But once they went in on the ground, there was a tendency for the number of civilians being killed to rise greatly."
Listen in full on The News Agents.
