Estonia ‘not afraid’ of Russia invasion threat: ‘We prepare. That’s what we do’
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Jonatan Vseviov, permanent secretary of Estonia, tells The News Agents how Estonia has readied itself for the possibility of an invasion from Russia, how to respond if America ends all support to Europe and why leaders must not look back and think ‘we should have’ when it comes to defending Ukraine.
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In brief…
- Jonatan Vseviov says Estonia, which borders Russia, considers the threat of invasion as “a fact of life” but is unafraid of military action from Vladimir Putin’s forces.
- He urges all members of NATO to increase defence spending, adding that Russia has shown no interest in achieving peace in its ongoing illegal invasion of Ukraine.
- The era of Europe having “total reliance” on America for its security is over, but insists the relationship is as important to the US as it is the EU.
What’s the story?
“If Russia stopped fighting today, there would be no war. If Ukraine stopped fighting, there would be no Ukraine.”
Those are the words of Jonatan Vseviov, permanent secretary of Estonia, one of the 14 countries to share a border with Russia, and one of 13 countries most immediately affected by Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
Estonia is a member of the EU, and one of biggest contributors to NATO, per capita, having recently upped its contribution to 4% of GDP, with plans to increase that to 5% in the future.
"We've lived next to Russia for as long as there has been a Russia," he tells Emily Maitlis and Jon Sopel.
"The people of Estonia are not afraid. They prepare. That’s what they do.
"It's a fact of life. No one is afraid. We are very clear-eyed about the threat. So what do we do? We prepare. We join NATO. We join the European Union."
Vseviov says Estonia is given "assurances constantly" from NATO that if Russia seeks to also breach its borders, the country will have its full support.
Estonia's goals for peace in Ukraine
But while Russia remains focused on its three-year siege on Ukraine, he adds the focus for the rest of the world must be on a "just and lasting" peace for its war-torn neighbour.
"The path to peace, from our perspective, is through pressure on the Russians," Vseviov says.
"We need to convince Putin that time is not on his side, but what seems to be happening these days is a lot of pressure being taken off of Putin and being put on the Ukrainians.
"This is no way to achieve peace."
He adds that as things currently stand, members of the EU, NATO, the UK and America are discussing peace in Ukraine "amongst ourselves".
"Have the Russians demonstrated any interest to achieve a just and lasting peace? No," he says.
"The first thing that sort of strikes me in this discussion is that we pretend as if the Ukrainians did not want peace.
"Ladies and gentlemen, there's one aggressor and one victim in this war. Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim."
With America pausing all support to Ukraine, and Donald Trump's threats to pull the US out of NATO entirely, he says Europe is poised to find itself in its most fragile position since the end of the Cold War in 1991.
"My suggestion would be to focus on the things that we can do. Increase defence spending now, increase your military assistance to Ukraine.
"Whatever you thought was sufficient yesterday is probably not sufficient today."
How to respond if America pulls all support for Europe?
Since returning to The White House in January 2025, Trump has criticised members of NATO for the amount they contribute, with warnings he may consider pulling out altogether.
Elon Musk has recently called on him to do precisely that.
"The last few weeks have served as another reminder for us Europeans that the era of total reliance on the Americans for our security is over," Vseviov tells The News Agents.
"If indeed the Americans decide to leave us and focus on other things, we will have to spend more on our defence. We will have to stand on our two feet confidently and defend our core interests, at least in our own backyard, if not around the world."
But while Vseviovh believes Europe is as important to America as America is to Europe, he also warns against a return to a time when the world's biggest countries dominated global politics with a ruthless self-interest.
"We need to stand up, push back and not accept a return to a world where the so-called 'great powers' of the day changed borders with military force or divided up continents between themselves," he adds.
"These are obviously turbulent and testing times."
What next?
With Estonia having upped its defence spending, Vseviovh recommends the rest of Europe, and NATO members, do likewise.
The UK increased its GDP spend to 2.5% in February 2025, but at the cost of decreasing overseas aid.
"I've advised our leaders to ensure that they don't find themselves in a position six months from today or a year from today, where they have to look back at today and start a sentence by saying: 'We should have'," he says.
He says this needs to be approached as a long-term investment in lasting peace.
"When you put an additional pound towards your defence, it doesn't give you an additional pound's worth of military capability immediately.
"Acquisitions take time, training takes time.
"My concern is that, yes, we are doing the right things, but we're doing them slightly too late."
He says that some decisions made during Russia's invasion of Ukraine have been made too slowly, and that if all sanctions on the country had been applied on day one, Europe would be in a very different position today.
"It's very human. It's very human for one to postpone difficult decisions," he says.
A leader's job is to explain the cost of not just the decisions you're going to take, but also the decisions you're not going to take during war time.
"Time is not measured by days and hours alone – time is measured in human lives, so the time lost is also equal to human lives lost."
He says the time for erring on the side of caution is long gone.
"We need more urgency. We need to move faster."
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