What are the potential benefits of Trump’s second presidency for the UK?
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Despite fears over what Donald Trump returning to the White House means for the world, could there be benefits in his second term for the UK?
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In brief…
- Donald Trump winning a second term as US president could bring some potential benefits to the UK, The News Agents say.
- Changes in the US could present opportunities in UK business, and our position outside the EU could now also reap rewards.
- They warn, however, that Trump's volatility makes banking on any tangible benefits a risky bet.
What's the story?
When Donald Trump became the US president, UK prime minister Keir Starmer congratulated him, saying the countries stand "shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise."
But he was hauled over the coals in the House of Commons by Tory leader Kemi Badenoch over comments made by Labour foreign secretary David Lammy in 2017 about Trump.
At the time he called Trump a "racist and KKK/neo-Nazi sympathiser", but in 2024 was among the government officials to welcome the president-elect into office.
Other Labour MPs have also been vocal about their dislike of Trump in the past.
It didn't set a great foundation for how the 'special relationship' between the US and UK might continue under a new administration. There have also been concerns how Trump's stance on US funding for Ukraine, global warming and introduction of tariffs on imports (among other things) will affect the entire world once he takes power.
But despite all the gloom, what could be the benefits of the second Trump presidency for the UK?
Could changes in America benefit British industry?
A new US government means a new administration and a new way of thinking.
And while nominating anti-vaxxer and Covid-skeptic Robert Kennedy Jr as secretary of health and human services has been met with widespread criticism and negativity, it could reap benefits for the UK.
"There will be parts of America that are deeply unsettled by, for example, having an RFK type figure, if he manages to get the Health Department of Health," says Emily Maitlis.
She says that having a vaccine sceptic in the top US health job could present an opportunity for UK-based firms to get a bigger hold in the market.
"If America starts going backwards in terms of what they're actually doing – and God forbid I do not wish that on any American – but if they start saying no to vaccinations and no to medicines and no to sort of new clinical trials, then we probably become the place that picks up all that."
The UK vaccine industry is currently projected to make £1,652 million ($2,109m) in 2024, rising to £2,157 million ($2,754m) in 2029.
The US, however, is projected to generate £22,811 million ($29,120m) in 2024.
Could Brexit finally bring some tangible benefits?
Donald Trump has promised to implement tariffs on imports to the US from Canada, China and Mexico – despite warnings from experts that this will increase the prices paid for those goods for the American people.
There have been warnings that going forward, similar tariffs could be imposed on EU products as well.
And that, Jon Sopel suggests, could put Britain in a strong position when it comes to US trade, since it is no longer part of the EU.
"This runs counter to a lot of what I think – but us being outside of the European Union is an advantage," he says.
"If there are tariffs being put on steel and other goods from the EU – because Donald Trump has a fixation about Mercedes Benz cars and why there are so many of them in America – I think that if Britain could somehow be excluded from that, that would be a huge diplomatic victory for the UK."
But this will remain, for now, a speculative benefit, depending on what tariffs are introduced, and whether they extend.
What about Trump's personal relationship with the UK?
For Lewis Goodall, fears for the UK's relationship with the returning president can be calmed by the knowledge that he appears to be "genuinely quite fond of Britain".
"It's well documented that Trump had great fondness for his mother, and that his mother had a great fondness for Scotland, which he obviously liked, and as well the Royal Family," Lewis says.
"This is something he has maintained, because, not least, he's a man of his generation and of his age.”
And while he adds that Joe Biden had "complicated feelings" towards the UK, he describes Trump as having a more "traditional kind of understanding of the world".
"I think that there probably are some advantages, and a British prime minister can appeal to that vanity and sense of history."
So, should we be more relaxed about Trump's presidency?
In a word – no. This is, of course, Donald Trump we're talking about.
"The fact is, Trump will do what he wants to do," says Lewis.
"He doesn't really care that much about anyone or any country.
Geopolitically, we know that, like the rest of Europe, a Trump presidency exposes us in all sorts of ways – Ukraine, Russia, all that stuff.
"He's so unpredictable. So there are far more bits of volatility, instability, disadvantages and our advantages. But it's not to say that there aren't some strengths we can and play to."
But for Emily, there is one important benefit for the UK in Trump's return to The White House – and that's some insight into where our country might be headed in the future.
"From the perspective of how populism works, how messaging works, how policies are being implemented, there will be people looking to see, has Trump got this or did he just win and then lose it all," she says.
"Anything that happens in America gives the UK between two and four years to see what might be happening here."
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