What can we learn from early voting in the US election?
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Millions of votes have already been cast in early and mail ballots in the US election. But does this give us any more insight than polling?
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In brief…
- Polls consistently show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump rating equally with voters ahead of the US election.
- Early voting has shown higher numbers of Republicans returning their ballots in advance than in 2020, but Trump was pushing theories of mail vote fraud at that time.
- Women have been casting early votes in higher numbers than men, with abortion rights a potential influence, and a positive sign for the Democratic Party.
What’s the story?
Polling ahead of the US election has been largely static throughout the campaign. No matter what either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump says or does, voter projections remain steady at roughly 50% apiece.
But with early voting now open, experts are now starting to look elsewhere for an additional steer on whether the US is set for a Democratic or Republican Party president, with millions of votes having already been cast – either in person or by mail.
But it still may not provide the answers many people are looking for.
"A lot of people are looking to early voting because the polls are telling us the same thing – that it is a tied race," Garrett Herrin, analyst with VoteHub US, tells The News Agents.
He says the picture remains "unclear" but adds that both Democratic and Republican supporters will be able to find "some good" in early reports.
What does early voting reveal about the US election?
What has early voting told us so far? ?
Headlines from the US have shown that Republicans are engaging in much higher numbers in early voting than they did in 2020 – but there's a very good reason for that.
"In 2020 the then president was telling his supporters not to vote by mail, to vote on Election Day, and that is not the strategy the Republican Party is taking this time," Herrin adds.
In 2020, Trump repeatedly pushed inaccurate claims about mail votes leading to voter fraud, long before he lost the election vote and escalated his rhetoric about a stolen election.
Herrin suggests this could lead to fewer votes being cast by Republican voters on election day, but also adds that even with this increase, data suggests the Democrats are still slightly ahead on early votes, with high turnout in traditionally blue cities such as Detroit and Philadelphia.
"In the past, Democrats have been the beneficiaries of high turnout," he says.
"But that may not necessarily be the case this time, because a lot of lower propensity voters are going toward the Republicans."
He adds that women have been voting early in higher numbers than they did in 2020, and suggests this could be influenced by votes on abortion, with Roe Vs Wade having been overturned in the years between elections.
"Women, in this case, skewed democratic. Men skew Republican, and Democrats are higher propensity right now," he says.
"They're the ones who are disproportionately doing the early voting.
"So if all we had to go on was early voting, then I think that Democrats would be pretty enthused by what they're seeing."
But, he adds, everything could change come election day.
And of course, the Hillary Clinton situation in 2016 – where she led the opinion polls and the early voting, and going on to losing to Donald Trump – will mean no one in the Democratic Party will be breathing any sighs of relief at either polling or early voting forecasts this time around.
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