How did the Democrats get it so wrong?

By Michael Baggs (with Emily, Jon and Lewis)

The dust is still settling on the results of the US election, and the Democratic Party will need to ask itself where things went wrong, and how it could have handled the campaign better.

Read time: 4 mins

In brief…

• The Democrats ran a stunted campaign in 2024, with Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden at the last minute, without any traditional selection process.
• She was never able to distance herself from his administration, which was unpopular, and this may have proven her undoing.
• Lewis Goodall says the Democrats defeat  “has to go back to Joe Biden's door”

What's the story?

While Republican voters will be throwing on MAGA hats and celebrating Trump's victory this week, for Democratic Party members it will be time to ask why Kamala Harris's campaign – one packed with optimism, competency and all those celebrities – failed so spectacularly.

It was easy to get swept up in the hype.

Following Joe Biden's disastrous showing against Trump in the June debate, all hope seemed lost for a Democratic Party win in 2024. When Harris was announced as his replacement, it seemed she reinvigorated the campaign and the party's chances. But it wasn't to be.

"I guess the question is, was it Kamala Harris's fault for the way she ran the campaign? Did she not have enough time to bed in? Did she fail to impress? " Emily Maitlis asks.

"Was she not upfront enough with voters about what she knew about Biden?"

Her ties to Biden were the source of criticism during her campaign. Not only concerning how much she knew about his seemingly declining health, but how she failed to distance herself from his administration, and explain how she would do things differently.

So, what went wrong for Harris, how does it all come back to Biden, and would anyone have lost the race against Donald Trump?

Was this always Trump's to lose?

Biden's administration was not popular.

During his time in power, America (and the rest of the world) felt the after-effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, plus the impact of the Ukraine war.

These, amongst other things, led to a decline in living standards across the globe, and a cost of living crisis which has affected working people everywhere.

Lewis Goodall believes this situation meant the 2024 race should have "always been a Republican season."

"The economy overall is booming, but people, in terms of their real living standards, feel worse off," he says, noting that prices of everyday items in the US have risen by 20% or more.

"I think this was a defeat which was seeded so long ago, and I think principally has to go back to Joe Biden's door, because Joe Biden and the people around him decided that he would run when he was clearly incapable of running," Lewis adds.

Is this Trump victory even more devastating for the Democrats than 2016?

Could the Democratic Party have done things differently?

The situation with Biden, his health and how it was exposed so uncomfortably on live television meant there were no primaries for the Democrats. No hats were thrown in any rings, no one put their case to the American people as to why they should lead the party.

Harris stepped up, at short notice, and that was that.

"There were two costs within that as well," Lewis says.

"The Democrats could have chosen someone who was not associated with the incumbent administration, who could conceivably have represented change.

"Or even if they had chosen Harris, at least, she would have had time to calibrate her message and actually work out one fundamental answer to one fundamental question, which she never had, and which is: How are you going to be different?"

Jon Sopel agrees that it all comes back to Biden, and how his incapacity was handled.

"Where the biggest inquest needs to be is not on Harris's campaign. Harris's campaign was fine," he says.

"I don't think Harris could have done much different, given that she had been the vice president for three and a half years, and inevitably, was tied to Joe Biden."

He adds that key people in the Democratic Party knew about Biden's cognitive decline, hid the truth, and are now paying the price in the most public way possible.

"I think there was a cover up at the White House – which sounds like one of those books that you pick up at the airport, 'Cover Up At The White House'," he jokes.

"But it seems to me something really extraordinary happened."

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