Battle for Tory leadership: Right-wing candidates tipped to triumph
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Henry Hill, deputy editor of Conservative Home, tells The News Agents how he thinks the Tory leadership race will play out.
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In brief...
- Right-wing Tories Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are tipped as contenders against the more moderate Tom Tugendhat.
- The future Conservative Party leader must appeal to a broad voter base and engage with various media outlets for the party's recovery.
- Badenoch's reluctance to engage with the press could be a disadvantage in opposition, despite her popularity.
Conservatives are set to select a leader from the right wing of the party in the upcoming leadership contest, a Tory expert has told The News Agents.
Henry Hill, deputy editor of Conservative Home, predicts either Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will win the Tory leadership contest, and beat the more moderate Tom Tugendhat in the race.
Speaking with Emily Maitlis, Hill says that Tory leadership contests almost always end with a standoff between a “one-nation candidate” and someone “more right-wing”.
One-nation conservatism is a more centrist notion, which seeks to prevent a division in the UK between rich and poor, and its supporters seek to improve the lives of working class people and families, alongside more traditional Conservative values.
“On the one-nation wing, Tom Tugendhat is probably the person to beat,” says Hill.
“He's got a big lead amongst MPs. He has been a security minister and he has the advantage of not having served in Rishi Sunak’s cabinet.
“So if he needs to, can have an easier time putting a bit of distance between himself and the previous government.”
Former cabinet ministers running for leader who served under Sunak will inevitably face grilling over their role in the former Tory government and its historic loss in the 2024 election.
“On the right, it's a more open contest, but I think it's going to come down to a battle between Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, versus Tom,” Hill continues.
“Then probably whichever one of Kemi or Robert has made it, will win.”
When it comes to the selection process, which is due to conclude on 2 November 2024, Hill says there is one key concern for MPs and members.
This time around, they will become leader of the opposition, not the country as previous leadership contenders Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss did.
“A lot of Conservative MPs in the current crop have joined Parliament at, or since, the 2010. election, and they don't remember how hard opposition can be,” he adds.
'Spiky' Kemi Badenoch faces press challenge
Badenoch is the bookies' favourite to become the next Conservative leader, but Hill says he sees one potential flaw in the former Secretary of State for Business and Trade – her reluctance to work with certain parts of the media.
“While she's very spiky, and she can be an excellent Commons performer, she has not historically shown a vast enthusiasm for the press, if we put it mildly,” Hill says.
“When you're in government, that's fine, because the press comes to you. You are a story merely by dint of being a minister, but in opposition, especially a year or two down the line when Labour's having internal ructions, the Conservative Party is going to have to fight to get in the conversation.”
Badenoch announced her candidacy in The Times newspaper, a right-wing publication, which shows some willingness to work with certain parts of the press.
But, Hill warns, if the Conservatives are to recover from the results of July 2024, it will not be able to solely rely on supportive corners of the UK media landscape, and will need to reach a much broader demographic of voters.
He names The Spectator, The Telegraph, Daily Mail and GB News as the key right-wing spaces that continue to support the Tories.
“I think that there is a danger that you end up playing to those audiences,” he adds.
“And what plays well with those audiences, even sometimes when the policy analysis is correct, can end up presented in a way that alienates other voters.
“It’s important that any Conservative leader goes to where the centre right – and right wing – voters in this country are and talks to them through their media outlets.”
This, he says, is key because voters are not “fixed points” and can be swayed by successful campaigning by an opposition party.
“It's not carved on people's souls that they are Labour voters, you can actually go out and make a persuasive case,” Hill says, adding that it must also focus on trying to win back people who voted for Reform UK.
“But that is not the same thing as trying to strike some kind of bargain with Reform the party,” he stresses.
“Those are very, very different strategies.”
Listen to the interview in full on The News Agents.
