Trump vs Harris: Where do things stand ahead of the looming debate?
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Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will meet head-to-head this week in a TV debate, with everything to play for in the US election, as polls remain tight between the two.
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Time to read: 4 mins
In brief…
- Kamala Harris is leading in most US polls, but Donald Trump has edged out the Democratic Party candidate in the latest to be released.
- The two will debate this week on CNN, in their first clash as presidential rivals.
- The News Agents discuss whether Harris has been able to turn the positive attention on her campaign into tangible support from voters.
What’s the story?
The last time an election debate took place, it made headlines for all the wrong reasons.
Instead of focusing on the political policies of the leaders in the TV studio, instead the world was focused on the mental capacity of Joe Biden, in a performance which ultimately called time on his career.
This week, it’s Kamala Harris who will face-off with Donald Trump in a live debate, (although we still don’t know if the mics will be live).
Despite Harris leading in most polls across America, she falls behind with voters when it comes to the economy and immigration – although she’s way ahead on abortion.
“It’s almost like there's been this collective memory loss for a certain tranche of Americans who have wiped out everything that happened under Trump after December 2019,” says Emily Maitlis.
“They've forgotten about the disastrous handling of Covid. They've definitely forgotten about January the sixth and the rewriting of their votes and democracy, and they've just kind of gone, 'oh, we remember when inflation was lower and it felt a bit better.'
“And that's the people Harris has to reach and remind now, because they're focusing on the policies.”
What are the polls saying?
A New York Times poll puts Donald Trump one point ahead of Kamala Harris – 48% to 47%.
And while polling has been tight since Harris took over as presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party, it has mostly been tipped in her favour.
Just last week, three polls put Harris ahead – YouGov, Emerson College and Morning Consult.
An NBC poll showed that 40% of Americans believed they would be better off under a Trump presidency, compared with 21% who thought Harris in the White House would result in more money in their pockets.
What happened behind the scenes of the Trump/Biden debate
What’s at stake in this debate?
For Harris – it’s a lot, considering the fallout for Democrats after the June debate between Biden and Trump.
It will also be the first time she has come face-to-face with Donald Trump on a public stage, following his attacks on her race, intelligence and capabilities as he’s campaigned over the past few months.
“He’s going to go after her, and he's going to say, ‘you're the most left wing, you're the most liberal’. That's the tone of Donald Trump is going to be,” says Jon Sopel.
“He's going to be trying to goad her in the debate, and Kamala Harris is not going to go there, but she may not give that many more interviews, and so questions will be left unanswered about why she's changed her position on fracking, why she's changed her position on immigration.”
For Trump, it won’t be the same easy ride he had in his summer clash with Biden, but it will be an arena in which he thrives.
"This will be his seventh presidential TV debate and TV is his thing, right?" Emily says.
"He knows the production of TV. He knows where to look. He knows how to moderate his voice or the rest of it."
"She's an advocate. She's a lawyer. She's great in a courtroom, but she doesn't look particularly comfortable with those off the cuff moments."
Emily says if he keeps focused on politics during the debate, there’s a good chance viewers will simply “tune out” anything else he might say.
"If he sticks to talking about policy, then there is a way in which American voters tune out the rest," says Emily.
"Actually, they don't really care if he sounds a bit weird, as long as they're not paying more for gas, as long as they're not seeing more of their wages go on tax."
What’s The News Agents’ take?
Kamala Harris has had a phenomenal summer, at least in terms of press coverage and positive reaction from Democratic Party members and voters.
But The News Agents question whether she's been able to win anyone over, or simply bring back the enthusiasm lost during the last gasp of the Biden leadership.
"Harris is in a modest, but reliable way, ahead in both the national polling and in the States," says Lewis Goodall.
"And yet, over the last couple of weeks, if you look at both the state polling and the national polling, it's actually starting to reverse.
"For whatever reason, she has not managed to capitalise on that bounce and convention bounce and take it to the next level and win over new voters. She simply reassembled much – but not all – of the 2020 coalition."
Listen in full on The News Agents.
