Keir Starmer’s rating dips: Why is the Prime Minister’s popularity slipping?

By The News Agents

The Prime Minister’s popularity is dipping as the Labour Party conference in Liverpool gets underway. But with a huge majority, how damaging really is this at such an early stage in his premiership?

Read time: 3 minutes

In brief…

• As the Labour Party Conference kicks off, Keir Starmer’s approval ratings are slipping rapidly.
• It comes after he slashed the winter fuel payment for pensioners and a row about accepting donations and gifts dominated headlines.
• The News Agents will give their take on what this means later today live from the Labour Conference.

What’s the story?

Keir Starmer got off to a flying start, securing a stonking majority in the general election while the Conservative Party saw the biggest loss in its history.

But his victory lap hasn’t lasted long, or so the polls suggest.

Now, it appears his popularity is dipping rapidly as the Labour Party Conference gets underway.

So what has sparked this increasingly negative perception of the Prime Minister?

And how much does public opinion really matter at this stage of his premiership?

What do the polls say?

The latest Opinium poll shows Starmer has suffered a massive 45-point drop in approval ratings since July.

Just 24% now approve of the job he’s doing while 50% disapprove.

His net rating of -26% is one point lower than former Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s.

A poll for Ipsos Mori made similar findings.

Why is his popularity slipping

Slashing the winter fuel allowance for pensioners was the first unpopular decision Starmer and his chancellor Rachel Reeves made.

The policy will means-test the payments which help some pensioners cover rising fuel bills.

It came after Labour said a £22 billion fiscal black hole in the country’s finances, left by the previous Conservative government, means they have to make these “difficult decisions” on tax and spending.

MPs voted in favour of the policy, but it has not been welcomed by much of the public, or by unions, which provide much of Labour’s funding.

Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite the union, said: “It's a cruel policy. He needs to reverse it.”

But the Labour government was aware the move would spark criticism, and with a large majority could be willing to accept the short-term backlash in the hopes that this can be undone by harbouring the conditions for more investment and growth.

Starmer said in an interview: “I know they’re unpopular, I know they’re difficult. Of course, they’re tough choices. Tough decisions are tough decisions. Popular decisions aren’t tough, they’re easy.”

Another such unpopular decision, which Reeves has admitted will come in the October budget, will be an increase in some taxes. She has yet to clarify where these increases will come.  All this is part of what some people have dubbed his “doom and gloom” messaging. That is, that Labour is constantly hammering the message that the country is in a dire situation because of 14-years of Conservative government.

He told reporters from the Downing Street rose garden: “I have to be honest with you: things are worse than we ever imagined.”

More recently, it emerged that Starmer accepted donations from Labour peer Lord Waheed Alli. These included £2,435 worth of glasses, £16,200 worth of work clothing, and a stay in an £18 million penthouse apartment.

While accepting donations is not against parliamentary rules, questions were raised as to whether he declared gifts Lord Alli had bought for his wife within the 28-day time frame. But the parliamentary standards commissioner has confirmed no investigation will be launched.

The matter sparked conflict of interest concerns. Justified or not, it marked a difficult week for Starmer.

The story was made worse when questions were raised about the manner in which members of his cabinet - Angela Rayner and Rachel Reeves - declared gifts they had received.

Now, a Downing Street source has said that Starmer, Reeves and Rayner will no longer accept donations to pay for clothes.

While Starmer has insisted no rules have been broken, the Prime Minister dodged the morning media round of interviews with broadcasters on Sunday - a typical tradition at the start of party conferences.

What have the News Agents heard?

Tom Baldwin, Starmer's biographer, told The News Agents that the Prime Minister and his cabinet may not have handled the gifts and donations row in the smartest way.

He said: "I think they've been naive and not actually stamping on the story earlier."

While this may have some short-term impact on Starmer's popularity, Baldwin doesn't deem it to be a "hanging crime".

"I don't think it's going to be what we talk about in 10 years time", he said.

But that doesn't mean Starmer can keep on going on as he is without any repercussions, Baldwin said.

He told Emily, Jon and Lewis: "One thing I know about Keir is he sometimes takes a bit of time to get to a position and realise what needs to be done, but when he does realise what needs to be done, he will pursue that goal both relentlessly and ruthlessly. I think he probably needs to show a streak of that...quite soon."

Stay tuned for the full discussion on today’s episode of The News Agents.

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