Could the next German chancellor lead Europe’s break-up with the US?
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Germany’s new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, whose Christian Democratic Union party won the country’s general election has said his priority is to strengthen Europe to “achieve real independence from the USA”.
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In brief…
- Germany’s far-right party, Alternative for Germany, has placed second in the country’s general election, taking 20.8%, behind Christian Democratic Union, which claimed 28.6%.
- CDU leader Friedrich Merz has said he wants to lead Europe to independence from the US, a move The News Agents says is to appeal to Germany’s socialist party, with which he hopes to form a coalition government.
- The shadow of Trump looms large over the results of the election, with European leaders divided over the future of Europe and the US – some still believing in a future with support from the US potentially due to the reality of the new president “too disturbing” to fully comprehend.
What’s the story?
Germany's conservative party, Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) has won the country's general election, but it was the country's fast-growing far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD) that was celebrating.
While CDU claimed victory with nearly 29% of the vote, AfD almost doubled its share from the 2021 election, taking 21% and placing second.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz is now preparing to form a coalition government, saying that Germany needs to "be present again in Europe and make sure the world sees that Germany again has a reliable government."
AfD leader Alice Weidel said the election result was a "historic success" for the party, which campaigned on anti-immigration and anti-Muslim policies, supports climate change denial and 'traditional' roles for women.
All other parties in Germany have refused to work with AfD, but they have been publicly supported by Donald Trump, Elon Musk and JD Vance.
Congratulating AfD, Trump wrote on Truth Social (his own social media network) that people in Germany were "tired of the no-common-sense agenda" and that that party's placing was a "great day for Germany."
Merz has said his "absolute priority" as Germany's new chancellor is to "achieve real independence from the USA" by strengthening Europe.
He explained this is because of Trump, and his administration, being "largely indifferent to the fate of Europe."
“This would have been completely impossible and incredible to believe for an incoming German Chancellor or any major European leader to say a month ago,” says Lewis Goodall.
“That is the effect of Donald Trump. He has changed the conversation. He has changed it profoundly, and Europe is now talking about going its own way.”
Why did Merz Make these comments?
Emily Maitlis believes Merz made his comments because of the CDU's proportionally small number of votes, and his hopes of forming a coalition government with the country's left wing socialist party.
“A move like this allows Merz the room to work with the party of the left, because he has been bending over backwards in terms of immigration to say he's going to be much, much more hard line on immigration, which the left won't like,” she says.
“This is something that I think the socialists will approve of, and they will want to see a return to something that looks like a European backbone.”
Merz has said Elon Musk's interference in the German election, repeatedly backing the AfD on social media, is as "dramatic, drastic and brazen" as Russia's involvement with the US election in 2016.
Is everything, everywhere, all about Trump?
Lewis says the number one priority of the current UK government and new German government, which will both outlast second Trump's presidency (if he doesn't rip up the US constitution in that time), must be to ensure NATO survives as a "credible defence alliance" during that time.
“That means biting our tongues diplomatically and biting the bullet on defense spelling,” he says.
“You've got some politicians saying: 'We can duck and dive on this. We can kiss the ring. We can keep him on side enough to keep NATO going and alive for the next four years.
“There are other politicians going: 'It's over. It's done. Trump might not even be an aberration, and we need to stop deluding ourselves and wake up to the new strategic reality.' That is a judgment call.”
Emily Maitlis says both Theresa May and Boris Johnson learned the hard way, that no matter how well Trump may speak of you in public, it doesn't mean he'll agree to a deal that benefits anyone other than the US.
“He hails Starmer as a very nice man and all the rest of it, but I will guarantee you we will not get what we want from America under Trump,” she says. “That will not happen.”
Lewis adds that Merz and Keir Starmer could be a “potent combination” in any future where Europe unites to distance itself from the US.
“They both have mandates which feel decisive but brittle,” he says.
“They've got the populist right breathing down their neck, but they also potentially don't need to have an election until 2029 when they can wait out the Trump period in office.
“They can hope to wait out this upsurge in the populist right, and if they can work together to try and lead Europe through this very difficult period, then there is potential.
“Every crisis is a tremendous opportunity.”
But this, Lewis says, will all depend when, or if, Starmer gets off the fence and makes a stand with either the US or Europe.
'Donald Trump is a psychopath'
What’s The News Agents’ take?
It has taken little more than a month into Trump’s second presidency to have Europe divided, with many leaders across the continent unable, or unwilling, to address the reality of the global power-shift brought by his return to The White House.
“There are still European leaders, and still way too many people, who are deluded about what Trump is, what Trump believes,” says Lewis.
“They cannot accept, because it's almost too chilling and too disturbing and too appalling to accept it.”
He adds it is “too inconvenient” and “unimaginable” that America is no longer on the side of European countries, their leaders and their populations.
“I think there are leaders who recognize that, and there are those who don't and cling to old realities. “
“It's yet to be seen exactly where Starmer sits on that.”
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