US Election 2024: What is a swing state and why are they so significant?
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Some states are always won by the same party, but it is the battleground states where results come down to the wire that could decide the country's next president.
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In brief…
- Swing states are usually won by only a few percentage points and neither Democrats nor the Republicans win them every time.
- They include Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and elsewhere.
- Presidential nominees tend to base their VP picks and campaign events around them due to their electoral importance.
Why are swing states significant?
A swing state - also known as a battleground state - is one where voters do not traditionally vote for the same party election after election, or where results are especially tight.
It is in these states where presidential election wins are often decided.
What are the key swing states?
The states you’ll most commonly hear in swing state discussions include Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania,. The so-called sunbelt states of the south - Nevada, Georgia and Arizona - are also considered swing states. Other potential swing states could now include Florida, Ohio and possibly North Carolina.
You certainly wouldn’t hear New York come up in swing state conversations, which has voted Democrat since 1984.
What's the broader context?
With these states in mind, it might help to explain the choices that presidential nominees make.
When Kamala Harris was gearing up to select a running mate, many expected her to go for Josh Shaprio, the Pennsylvania Governor who is popular in the swing state.
Now, she is campaigning with Tim Walz, with the pair making speeches at campaign event in areas that will specifically appeal to swing voters.
Trump has also been campaigning across these locations. You might remember that one event where he was shot at in Pennsylvania.
A look back
2020
Joe Biden performed strongly in the swing states that year, which is largely why he was successful against Donald Trump.
He just about got Georgia over the line for the Democrats…you may remember Trump asking officials there to find him more votes.
Biden also won in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona, causing a huge upset for Trump.
The Republicans won in some areas considered swing states, such as Texas and North Carolina, but it was not enough to get Trump over the line.
2016
The story was almost the other way round.
In Pennsylvania, Trump caused a stir when he secured a Republican victory for the first time since 1988.
The same can be said for Wisconsin, which before Trump’s win had typically voted Democrat.
Other areas considered Swing States which Trump won that year include Florida, Texas, Arizona as he raced to victory against Hillary Clinton.
The News Agents’ Take
Jon Sopel says: "The three Democrat states that are the critical states in this election are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania."
He refers to this region as a sort of "blue Democrat wall".
Jon points out that in Pennsylvania in particular, Kamala Harris is now "handily four points ahead", according to the latest New York Times Sienna poll, whereas "Joe Biden was behind".
He adds: "If you look at three of the sunbelt states, which Biden just about squeaked in 2020, Biden was well behind. They are now in play, and the Democrats are suddenly looking at a map, which is a lot better for them than it was a few weeks ago, and it's a catastrophe for Donald Trump."
There is another state that may be at play too, and that is North Carolina, despite the fact it hasn't been won by a Democrat since Barack Obama in 2008.
Emily Maitlis says: "North Carolina somehow is exciting Democrats beyond all sort of reasonable measure, because they're thinking not just, could she harden up some of these real swing states like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania? Could she actually be about to take them?"
Florida, another state which "hasn't been in play for years", is traditionally a Republican stronghold but Jon notes polling is narrowing here too.
In Ohio, it's a similar story.
Jon notes: "You've now got Democrats looking at Republican states and thinking we could potentially win there."
For Emily, when you look at all the different polls together, you see "what was essentially a race that was very much Trump's to lose just a month ago", shifting to a "totally different potential outcome."
But there's a caveat.
Emily adds: "This is just a snapshot. All it means is that if the election were held tomorrow, would she look as if she could take those states? She would."
But it "doesn't mean anything for an election that's in November", Emily adds.
Emily Maitlis and Jon Sopel share their thoughts in today’s USA podcast.
