'It’s Zelensky’s worst nightmare': What does Donald Trump’s victory mean for Ukraine?
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America's incoming president has vowed to slash military aid for Kyiv and quickly broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, but what impact will Trump’s presidency actually have on the conflict?
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Read time: 3 minutes
In brief…
- Donald Trump has said he could end the war in Ukraine by brokering a peace deal within 24 hours, but Kyiv has warned it is not that simple.
- He has vowed to stop providing military aid to Ukraine and threatened to pull out of NATO.
- The News Agents say Trump’s win is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s worst nightmare.
'Trump can do what he likes now; he has proven he is above the law'
What’s the story?
Donald Trump has previously said that if he was president, he would be able to end Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine within 24 hours.
Now, there are just a few months until he replaces Joe Biden as the next leader of the United States.
How exactly does Trump plan on following through?
He has made clear he does not want the US to continue providing military aid, which has come thick and fast under Biden.
Trump has also previously threatened to pull the US out of NATO.
“Putin was ordering up the best beluga caviar that rubles can buy after the election night results, because Donald Trump and JD Vance think another dollar spent on Ukraine is a dollar wasted,” Jon Sopel points out.
Trump has instead called for peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine.
But what would such a settlement look like? How will Ukraine and Russia respond? And how much worse could things get worse for Kyiv and the wider region?
Should Ukraine be concerned?
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has already made clear he is not particularly keen on Trump’s idea of a fast peace deal.
He told reporters that while the future American president "really wants a quick decision” to end the war, it “doesn't mean that it will happen this way.”
“We all want to end this war, but a fair ending ... If it is very fast, it’s going to be a loss for Ukraine.”
This may be because any kind of deal we see presented at this stage would likely involve the border getting “drawn where it currently stands, the conflict gets frozen, and Russia consolidates the gains,” Jon argues.
“It is Zelensky’s worst nightmare, what has unfolded this week”, Jon adds.
Emily Maitlis points to the argument made by the Conservative Party - that the Ukraine war will only end with a concession of land.
“The question is whether you want to see it happen on day one, or sooner rather than later”.
How could it impact the wider region?
The other argument, Emily says, is that many people believe Putin's actions and activities won't just stop with Ukraine.
Those who hold this point of view, Emily says, argue that “the cheapest way to stop Putin right now is to throw everything at it before it comes down to more lives lost, before it comes down to more invasion, before it comes down to more sovereign territories.”
She adds this could have ramifications for countries such as Finland, Estonia, the Baltics, and “parts of Europe that are much closer to home”.
That is why some argue it is easier to end the Ukraine war by helping Ukraine now, rather than seeing what Putin may do next.
What’s The News Agents take?
Jon says: “I'm sure Donald Trump does want to get this sorted on day one, day two, or in the early stages.
“He is not going to want to do something that makes it look like a total capitulation and surrender to Moscow and a total betrayal of Ukraine because that would portray him as weak rather than strong.”
Instead, Jon suspects Trump will attempt to make it appear as though Putin is also giving something up.
Lewis Goodall disagrees, arguing Trump doesn’t really care at all.
He says: “His base is so against the war… they have become extremely radical on those issues.
“I think he would just present it as a sign of strength [by saying] ‘I ended the war, end of”.
Listen in full on The News Agents.
