Will Russia invade Estonia? 'We must be ready', foreign minister says
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Vladimir Putin says he is creating a new world order, but could Donald Trump become the “Churchill of our times” by stopping this?
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In brief…
- Vladimir Putin has said he is forming a “new world order” in a major threat to the West.
- Estonia’s foreign minister, Margus Tsahkna, tells The News Agent’s Donald Trump could become the “Churchill of our times” if he suppresses Russia and its allies.
- Tsahkna warns how Estonia and other countries bordering Russia are at risk of invasion, which could drag Britain and NATO allies into a conflict.
What’s the story?
Donald Trump could become the “Churchill of our times” if he stops Vladimir Putin from creating a “new world order”, Estonia’s foreign minister has said.
Putin proclaimed that a “new world order” was taking hold just days after Trump was elected president.
“The process of forming a multipolar world order is underway, a dynamic and irreversible process,” he said at an event which a host of world leaders attended in Kazan.
Currently, Russia’s allies include countries such as North Korea, Iran and China. These are eastern dictatorships that are not aligned with the West.
Putin’s envisaged new world order refers to these countries grouping together to become the most powerful force on the globe.
Margus Tsahkna, Estonia's minister of foreign affairs, points out that Putin has been using this phrase for years.
But with the invasion of Ukraine and other simultaneous conflicts across the globe, Tsahkna says that now, we need to take Putin’s threat “very seriously”.
“We have different conflicts which are all connected. Evil countries… have been more active than ever before during the last year,” he tells The News Agents.
From Iran launching missiles in the Middle East, Russian proxies in Africa, China’s threat to invade Taiwan, and North Korean troops fighting on NATO’s borders, Tsahkna argues that it’s “all connected”.
“Dictatorship countries, they have pushed the limits as far as possible,” he says.
In the Second World War, Winston Churchill was able to suppress Nazi Germany, fascist Italy and its other allies.
If Donald Trump can “give the clear answer” to dictatorships and their global aggressions, just like Winston Churchill did in the 1940s, then he could be the “Churchill of our times”, Tsahkna argues.
Estonia's Foreign Minister says they are prepared for a “probable” Russian invasion
Why is Estonia making this plea?
The opportunity for Trump to be like Winston Churchill is very much theoretical at this moment in time.
Jon Sopel points out: “Donald Trump has made clear that he is an isolationist and he wants to kind of keep America out of conflict.”
He has vowed to slash US military aid for Ukraine and previously threatened to withdraw from NATO.
Putin may see this as an opportunity to push deeper into Ukraine and potentially the countries bordering Russia.
As it looks to expand its territory, reclaiming its imperial past by imposing on former Soviet states, this could be particularly worrying for Estonia.
The Baltic state shares a 183-mile border with Russia and was incorporated into the Soviet Union in 1940. It later gained independence in 1991, although Russian troops did not leave until 1994. Estonia was admitted to NATO in 2004, and joined the EU the same year.
Concerns Russia could come back are very real.
“We are preparing for the probable invasion from Russia, maybe in the next couple of years,” Tsahkna says.
He adds: “We are not afraid. We have been living for 7000 years or even more. We are very practical. We have been surviving all these atrocities and occupation, but we know that we must be ready.”
What does this mean for NATO and its allies?
Article Five of the NATO treaty states that an attack on one NATO country is an attack on all NATO countries.
This helps to explain why Britain is more than alive to Russia’s threat to its bordering counties, with troops stationed in Estonia to assist with defence.
“We have British troops, together with France’s permanent troops, and also US troops.
“We are very happy about this, and they are ready to go within the first second, together with our troops.”
It means Britain could be fighting for NATO against Russia.
But if the war in Ukraine is brought to an end, that may not need to happen.
Can Trump end the war in Ukraine?
Given Trump and his running mate JD Vance’s previous statements about Ukraine, there may not be much reason to be optimistic.
Vance said in February 2022 just after Russia’s troops invaded: "I gotta be honest with you, I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another."
But Trump has since claimed that he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours if elected president.
Tsahkna is not so sure.
He says: “Be realistic, the only person who can finish this war within 48 hours is Putin, just by withdrawing his troops, peace will come.”
But for now, “heavy fighting and terror bombing in Ukraine from Russia” is accelerating.
He says that “Russia is pushing as far as possible” into Ukraine, and will continue to do so before negotiating any kind of peace deal.
Even if a peace deal is reached, however, it does not necessarily mean Russian aggression will stop.
In 2014 and 2015, Russia and the West signed the Minsk Agreements, a set of deals to end the fighting between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Part of the deal, as well as a ceasefire, was the restoration of full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine.
Fast forward to 2022, Putin went against the terms of the agreement by sending his troops storming across the eastern border.
This is why, Tsahkna argues, “we must be ready for the next aggression”.
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