What Starmer's climate pledges mean under threat of Trump presidency
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Keir Starmer has affirmed the UK’s climate change plans at COP29, but what impact will the next US president have on international goals?
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In brief…
- Keir Starmer has said the UK will be “on the frontline” addressing climate change.
- His stance puts him in opposition with Donald Trump, who is a climate denier, and is likely to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on the reduction of carbon emissions.
- The News Agents say if the US pulls out, other countries may consider their own role in the fight against global warming.
What's Starmer been saying at COP29?
Keir Starmer’s latest stop on his global travels is Baku in Azerbaijan, where he's attending COP29.
COP (Conference of Parties) is an annual meeting of world leaders, where pledges are made and strategies discussed on reducing the impact of climate change on our planet.
Labour's commitment to Net Zero was part of its manifesto in the 2024 General Election, and Starmer remains committed to reducing the UK's greenhouse gas emissions in line with international guidelines.
At COP, Starmer confirmed the UK's target to reduce greenhouse gases by at least 81% by 2035.
He says the UK intends to stand "on the frontline" in addressing climate change. But this stance not only puts him in opposition with other key political figures in the UK, but also the newly elected president of the United States, Donald Trump.
Emily Maitlis says Starmer didn't hold back with his climate change promises.
"He's literally put Britain on target for the most ambitious climate target of any other country, and he did it with a big push about the way it's going to revitalise the economy, and that has been his focus," she says.
"He name checked Bridgend and Tyneside and parts of the UK that we would associate with a levelling up project.
"He said this is what it's all about, it's about making the economy better."
Lewis Goodall says Starmer has put "great political emphasis" on the climate change agenda since coming to power this summer.
"He has suggested that it is a way of ensuring that Britain can have energy security and can, as you say, help re-industrialise parts of the country," Lewis says – although also points out that some analysts are sceptical of these goals.
"It is very likely that Donald Trump, meanwhile, is going to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords for a second time, and that obviously makes it rather difficult for Starmer in terms of how he's going to navigate that as part of his relationship with Trump."
So what next for the UK's climate change commitment, and how does the next president elect fit into our planet's future?
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What does a Trump presidency mean for climate change?
Donald Trump pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement in 2017 (with regulations meaning it officially left three years later). When Biden was sworn in as president in 2021, he immediately re-entered.
All signs suggest Trump will do exactly the same this time around.
"Trump, as recently as last weekend, was saying that climate change is all a big hoax," says Lewis.
"It would mean if the US – as the second biggest polluter in the world – isn't going to be tackling this stuff, the rest of the world has to take up more of the slack.
"And of course, much of the rest of the world might soon find itself asking the question, well, if they're not going to do it, then why should we?"
In the UK, while the Conservative Party believe climate change is real, some of its leading figures do not agree with some of the strict deadlines and targets the country is currently aiming for.
"We've seen with Kemi Badenoch, in these early days, that the Conservative Party is highly sceptical about binding targets.
"We've seen a move towards climate scepticism. They don't disagree with the science but they disagree on how to get there."
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Starmer’s commitment welcomed by Lib Dems
Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, tells The News Agents that he welcomes Keir Starmer's 81% pledge.
"Of course, you need the action, and we need a really full program of how that's going to be delivered," he says.
"That's important if we are going to regain the leadership that we once had on climate change negotiations and indeed filling the vacuum that we suspect the Trump presidency will leave."
He says he hopes Joe Biden approves more green initiatives before his presidency ends in early 2025 – for the planet, and for the US economy.
“If you look in the States, the big growth in the energy sector and the jobs is in solar and wind,” Davey adds.
“Trump's been very disparaging about wind, but it's where the jobs are, and if he undermines that, he'll be shooting himself in the foot.”
“There is a good economic case for him to be less negative on the whole climate agenda, if he wants to take it.”
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What's The News Agents' take?
2024 is set to be the hottest year ever on record, but the EU is set to miss its climate targets this year – and that's in countries still trying to adhere to the Paris Agreement.
Emily says Trump's climate denial stance could be one of the most concerning elements of his second presidency.
"We were so dazzled by the events last week, the presidential election, and there are so many global implications," she says.
"Surely one of the absolute biggest, up there with Ukraine, is the fact that the United States has re-elected, possibly the world's most famous climate denier."
But many voters in both the UK and the US this year voted for change, after living through several years of a cost of living crisis, and hoping for a stronger economy, and more money in their pocket.
Which could make the reality of hitting Starmer's tough climate goals difficult to swallow for people whose priority is a swift improvement to their own personal circumstances.
"The truth is, and this is something that is never levelled with, is that moving to clean energy is not cheap," says Lewis.
"It can actually end up being more expensive than fossil fuels.
"Eventually it does become cheaper, but the investment to get there is really expensive."
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