Will Donald Trump's ‘bro-vote’ gamble pay off?
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Will Donald Trump’s focus on getting young men to vote backfire?
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In brief…
- Early voting shows Kamala Harris is proving far more popular with female voters.
- Instead of trying to broaden his support base, Trump is doubling-down on a strategy to appeal to young males who may be unlikely to vote.
- The News Agents say Trump’s strategy of relying on the ‘low-propensity bro-vote’ could backfire.The US election is just days away, but early voting has already begun.
Will Trump’s ‘bro-vote gamble’ pay off?
While it does not offer a clear indication as to which way the election will swing, one thing is for certain - women are turning out in droves for Kamala Harris.
Instead of trying to claw back the female vote, Trump is doubling down on a core strategy he has been banking on through the campaign - appealing to young men.
The issue is, young men tend to be the most unreliable voters.
In 2020, turnout was 55% among women aged 18-29 compared to 44% for men the same age.
It is these so-called ‘low-propensity’ male voters, men who are less likely to turn out to vote, who Trump’s team believe could be the key to getting him over the line.
This is what Emily Maitlis calls “the 'bro vote' -, it is the vote that is difficult to locate, that probably isn’t registered”.
So will Trump’s gamble of relying on new male voters pay off?
Or could the same old hurdles - paperwork and the hassle of turning out tohe vote - put them off once again?
How is Trump appealing to the ‘bro vote’?
Elements of machismo have been present throughout Trump’s campaign, and the former president has been sure to make himself heard by this demographic.
Trump has had a string of interviews on podcasts popular with young men, such as The Joe Rogan Experience, and has appeared at football games and mixed martial arts fights.
The song “It’s A Man’s Man’s Man’s World” also often plays at his campaign events.
Trump is not just relying on his own rhetoric, but those who have endorsed him too, to appeal to the ‘bros’.
For instance, wrestler Hulk Hogan has appeared at two campaign rallies, ripping off his shirt at both the Republican National Convention and more recently at a rally in Madison Square Garden.
Why is he appearing less popular with female voters?
Trump’s team has insisted that it is not concerned about Harris’ favourable standing among early female voters.
Instead, they have argued that its core support base - young men - have simply not voted yet.
That could be why his language around women, and his lack of effort in appealing to them, has not appeared to change.
At a campaign rally over the weekend, Trump said he will be a “protector” of women, whether they like it or not.
It comes after repeated accusations against Trump and the men he has been campaigning with of sexism.
In July, for instance, the former president defended his running mate JD Vance’s comments that America under Kamala Harris would turn into a country run by “a bunch of childless cat ladies”.
Meanwhile, Kamala Harris’ campaign has placed a huge emphasis on reproductive rights, attacking Trump’s team for its generally anti-aborition stance.
Lewis Goodall notes: “Harris is cleverly making the argument that if Trump gets in again, even if you're in a blue state, they will be coming to you for a federal abortion ban.”
Trump has denied he would sign a federal abortion ban into law, arguing he would leave this up to individual states to decide. But he did previously back a federal ban.
But given his taking credit for the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe Vs Wade - the 1973 legal ruling that gave women across the country the legal right to an abortion - he has made clear he is largely in the pro-life camp when it comes to reproductive rights.
What’s The News Agents take?
Jon Sopel says: “The thing that strikes me about the Trump campaign is the extent to which they are not seeking to broaden support out.
“They're doubling down on the bro vote, on getting young men out to vote for him, to counter, in effect, the women who are going to vote for Harris.”
Jon believes that this could be a mistake.
“He does need to win over the so-called independents, the moderate Republicans, and all those people that are in the middle.
“There may not be huge numbers, but if states are going to be won by small numbers, try and win them over.”
Emily says that you may well see plenty of young men on the street singing Donald Trump’s praises loud and proud.
But “are they registered? Have they signed their name? Will they be bothered?” Emily asks.
She adds: “They can shout all they want in the back of your piece-to-camera, but do they actually go and do the paperwork. Trump is reckoning that they will.”
Listen in full on The News Agents.
