Is Ukraine preparing to cede Crimea? ‘A victory for aggression and for Putin’
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A critical 15-minute meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelensky at Pope Francis's funeral appears to have shifted momentum toward peace talks, with growing speculation that Ukraine may finally consider territorial concessions to end Russia’s devastating invasion.
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In brief:
- During Pope Francis's funeral in Rome, Presidents Trump and Zelensky had a 15-minute meeting that was described as "very productive" and potentially "historic," after which Trump posted critical comments about Putin on social media.
- Diplomatic sources suggest Zelensky may be preparing to make concessions on Crimea to Russia in order to end the war, a compromise previously rejected in 2022 at the Istanbul peace summit.
- Estonia's President Karis, who spoke with Trump at the funeral, indicated uncertainty about whether Crimea would remain part of Russia but noted that the war cannot continue indefinitely, and that any territorial concession would be Ukraine's decision.
What’s the story?
While world leaders gathered in Rome to commemorate Pope Francis, behind the scenes some “funeral diplomacy” was taking place.
Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky met face-to-face, in the backdrop of the magnificent Basilica of San Pietro, for the first time since their disastrous White House meeting in February.
“When you look at the photo, it is two leaders, two chairs, yards away from the Pope's coffin. It's a pose that looks almost confessional,” Emily Maitlis says, reporting from Rome.
Everyone has seen the photo, but no one knows what was said in the critical 15 minute meeting. The White House describes it as “very productive”, while Zelensky went further, saying it has the “potential to become historic”.
Whatever was said seemed to turn Trump on his axis, with the President posting on social media as he left Rome that Putin’s deadly attacks on Ukraine earlier in the week; "makes me think that maybe he doesn't want to stop the war, he's just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through 'Banking' or 'Secondary Sanctions?'".
Until now, Trump, Putin and Zelensky have been unable to achieve a peace plan - something Trump is keen to do before marking his 100 days as President.
As time goes on, is the potential for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal involving the ceding of Crimea, something Zelensky has always refused, more likely?
Does Estonia's president believe Trump's promise of safety from Russian invasion?
Is Zelensky ready to give up Crimea to Russia?
Emily’s been on the ground in Rome and the feeling is that a concession from Zelensky is looking all the more likely as time goes on.
A diplomat, who Emily notes might be more Russian sympathetic, told her that he expects Zelensky to “capitulate on Crimea now, perhaps even on the Donbas.”
This, Emily says, may be the “realists perspective on what those leaders discussed”.
In April 2022, just two months into the war, this option was discussed at the peace summit in Istanbul.
“Apparently the same arrangement had been mooted, and this diplomat told me Boris Johnson was the figure who told Zelensky to say no,” Emily says. This may have been with “good reason,” as Johnson believed Ukraine’s military strength had taken Putin by surprise.
“What the diplomat was trying to tell me was in the light of where we now find ourselves today, with everyone expecting that a Crimea compromise will be reached, many people are now revisiting that summit, that conversation and that decision, and inevitably, they're asking if three more years of war was worth it.”
Estonia’s President Karis, who sat next to Melania Trump at the Pope’s funeral, just two seats away from Donald Trump, says it’s “difficult to predict” whether Crimea will end up as a part of Russia.
"But then again, you can't continue with this war,” he tells Emily.
“It's up to Ukrainians whether they accept Crimea, at least maybe temporarily, to be part of Russia or not.”
President Karis relays telling President Trump during their encounter at the funeral that relations between Europe and the US need to be mended.
“He agreed,” Karis says.
Trump also told the Estonian president that he will prepare to visit Estonia at some point.
“He said, ‘it's a very nice country, and you are safe’. This is what he said , that exact sentence - ‘you are safe’.”
Asked whether he’s inclined to believe Trump’s words, Karis says; “that's another question”.
What’s The News Agents’ take?
“It is almost fitting that the funeral of a pope who fought so hard for peace could be the place that world leaders came to search for it,” Emily says.
Trump’s social media post following the meeting could give insight into his changing perspective, Emily suggests, leading some to wonder what Zelensky said to him to prompt the change in tone.
“What Trump seemed to suggest was that Putin didn't want to stop the war, that Putin was keeping it going for his own gain.”
“Was it in that 15 minutes that Zelensky did the verbal equivalent of shaking him and saying, ‘Don't you see what's going on here?’”
But Jon Sopel reminds everyone that while Trump might have changed his tone towards Putin, nothing with Trump is permanent.
“People often compare Trump to a sofa - he bears the impression of the last person who sat upon him,” Jon says.
The decision of whether to concede Crimea, as Emily’s source suggests is likely, is a “sensitive and a really painful one,” Jon says.
“I think it would be hard to see that as anything other than a victory for aggression and for Putin and for tyranny,” Emily concludes.
It would also bring Zelensky’s future as leader of Ukraine into question. “If he takes that deal will it be the end of Zelensky?” Emily asks.
“If it becomes his last act to say I couldn't stop the war, I couldn't stop Putin, I have had to cede this territory that I always swore I could never cede, but I have to do that because we can't afford to lose any more Ukrainian sons and daughters to this war.”
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