What is a ‘tipping point’ state, and why are they important in the US election?
| Updated:
As the US election draws closer, conversation has turned to America's tipping point states and what they mean for Republican and Democrat chances for victory.
Listen to this article
In brief...
- A tipping point state is one which gives a number of electoral college votes that could swing a US election win from the winner, to the losing opponent.
- Two of the key states in this year's presidential race are Pennsylvania and Georgia.
- A party losing one of its key tipping point states mean "the election's over", say The News Agents.
What's the story?
As you may be aware, there is an election on the horizon – and it's quite a big one.
On 5 November, America goes to the voting booth to make a choice between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, on who will run the country for the next four years.
Kamala Harris, once thought 'unelectable', is ahead of Donald Trump in the polls – although as Hillary Clinton's poll lead in 2020 told us, there is some margin of error.
American elections are historically close: Biden beat Trump in 2020 by just 4.5% of the vote, Trump beat Clinton in 2016 despite her polling 2.1% more of the total vote.
"It's a highly polarised electorate who deeply, deeply fear – and I mean existentially fear – the other side," says Lewis Goodall of The News Agents.
"That is why you always end up with about 45% of the electorate who are always going to vote one way."
And if that's the case, that leaves around just 10% left to play for, which is why – around this time in an election campaign – eyes start to turn to swing states and tipping-point states, as the indicators of how the dice may roll when voting day comes around.
What is a tipping-point state?
A swing state is one that could flip either red or blue at a US election, a tipping point state is one that losing could cost a presidential hopeful the entire race.
Each state has a number of electors (the electoral college), which is ultimately down to its population size. Winning California (a Democrat stronghold) results in 54 electoral college votes, winning Delaware gives three.
There are 538 electoral college votes at stake in a US election, and a candidate needs 270 to claim victory.
A tipping point state is one with the number of electoral college votes needed to flip the state to the winner's opponent when the final tally is counted.
In 2024, Pennsylvania is expected to be a key tipping point state for the Democrats (19 electoral college votes) and Georgia for the Republicans (16).
So, if Kamala Harris wins the November election by 18 electoral college votes over Donald Trump, Pennsylvania's 19 votes would make it a tipping point state.
North Carolina (16 electoral college votes), Michigan (15), Florida (30), Texas (40), Arizona (11) and Wisconsin (10) are also considered tipping point states in the 2024 election, and are all close in opinion polls.
What's The News Agents' take?
Lewis says without just one of these crucial states, "the election's over".
"If you're looking for two states that will be absolutely pivotal, then Pennsylvania and Georgia are the two," he adds.
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz recently took their campaign to Georgia in an attempt to secure the state for Dems, which Jon Sopel believes could be a wily election tactic to force Trump's hand.
"They think that this is in play," he says, referring to the fact that Georgia – traditionally Republican – turned blue in 2020 for the first time in nearly 30 years to help elect Joe Biden.
"Now it may be a feint to try to force the Republicans to spend even more money in the state, because the more money you put into one state, the less you've got for another.
"But it looks like the Democrats now believe that Georgia is in play."
Pennsylvania has a similar voting history to Georgia – but in reverse. It has been Democratic since 1992, only running red in 2016, when Donald Trump won the state in his first run for President.
He may not be so keen to return to campaign there, however, considering this was where he was shot in the ear during a rally in July this summer.
Listen in full on The News Agents.
