Syria liberation: What comes next, and can Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rule?
| Updated:
The scenes from Syria are ones of jubilation as people celebrate the downfall of Bashar al-Assad, but what comes next for the country?
Listen to this article
Read time: 4 mins
In brief…
- The News Agents describe the liberation of Syria from more than five decades of dictatorship under the al-Assad family as “genuinely momentous”.
- But there is now a huge question mark over what comes next for the country, which faces huge instability without new leadership.
- The rebel group which claimed victory, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is designated as a terror group by some major world powers, and is trying to rebrand as a peaceful group ready to lead.
What’s the story?
Celebrations have taken place in Syria since the fall of the Assad regime, one which has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives of its inhabitants.
A civil war has been waged in the region since 2011, and began when dictator Bashar al-Assad launched deadly attacks on peaceful protests standing against his, and his family's, 50-year dictatorial rule over the country.
It was a moment Lewis Goodall describes as "genuinely momentous and historic."
There have been huge celebrations in the city of Damascus and across the country.
Assad, and his government forces, were only able to maintain his grip on power due to military support from Russia and Iran, along with Hezbollah fighters.
But with all three of these groups currently involved in warfare closer to home, it exposed a weakness for rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to take advantage of.
“What is extraordinary is the extent to which Assad's regime, his men and his army have surrendered, just walked away with barely a shot being fired," says Lewis.
"That's how brittle the regime was in the end. That's how little popular consent there was for this regime.
"It could easily have been the other way. It could have been a pitched battle, the sort of thing that we've seen over many years."
Assad fled Syria to Russia, and a message has been broadcast on Russian TV saying he hopes for a peaceful transfer of power.
After more than a decade of brutal war against his own people, Jon Sopel says he struggles to believe this represents al-Assad's true feelings.
What's the geopolitical impact of Damascus falling into the hands of rebels?
What comes next in Syria?
While global news is filled with scenes of Syrian celebrations, the situation will be raising concerns across Europe and the rest of the world.
"What you've now got in Syria is jubilation," says Jon Sopel.
"The Assad regime was utterly brutal, but there's a huge question mark of what comes next."
Jon describes its geographical location as "absolutely critical" – which is one of the main reasons western powers are so keen to see stability in the region.
It sits between the Arabian Peninsula and the Mediterranean Sea, making it a vital country for trade.
There will also be concerns, going forward, about the people of Syria and their place in the world.
"There will be really big geopolitical and international implications, not least, if things go wrong," says Lewis.
There are millions of Syrian refugees around the world, and since the downfall of the Assad regime, many have flooded back from places such as Lebanon and Turkey.
"If things go really wrong, if there is a miscalculation, if there is a dissent into further ethnic or political conflict, or a resurgence in a hard line Islamism, then those refugee flows will start again," Lewis adds.
"We will be back into the conversations which convulsed European politics, and partially led to Brexit, with a huge migratory crisis that we saw in 2015 still having implications today."
He says there will be "nervousness" in the British government on how it handles the situation.
Deputy PM Angela Rayner told Lewis the priority of the government was to see stability in the region.
Can Trump really avoid the intensifying unrest in the Middle East?
Can Hayat Tahrir al-Sham successfully rule Syria?
The rebel group, known widely as HTS, is proscribed as a terrorist group by the UN, US, Turkey and others.
But its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani – who is attempting to establish himself as Syria's next ruler, wants this international reputation to change.
"Jolani is trying to re-badge himself as the Syrian nationalist leader, not as a sort of Jihadist or leading a revolution in that way," says Jon.
Lewis says Jolani is trying to "moderate" the group's image, and prove it can be a government "for all Syrians" – which means straddling huge cultural and religious divides in the country.
"They are trying to make clear that they would do business with everybody and not be sectarian in that way," he says.
"But there is concern, obviously, particularly from religious minorities in Syria, that this could be another Islamist regime in the making, and it could become oppressive in Islamist terms."
He adds that this will also be the concern of governments across the world.
"Jubilation and euphoria now. but then, what next?" Lewis asks.
"What about the hard yards of actually governing this country, of keeping the bins flowing, of keeping the schools open.
"We've seen this movie before, where a new regime or a new party comes in, and quickly there is chaos."
Listen in full on The News Agents
