How Donald Trump won the US election
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Donald Trump will become the next US president – but how did he achieve such a monumental political comeback?
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In brief…
- Trump has described his MAGA movement as the “greatest political movement of all time” in America, and “maybe beyond”.
- Despite using “lies” during his campaign, The News Agents say political experts “underestimated” the popularity of the Trump campaign.
- Kamala Harris did worse than expected, losing substantial numbers of votes in previously secure Democrat states such as New York.
What's the story?
"We are not going back," was the message of the Kamala Harris campaign for the Democrat Party in the 2024 election.
Oh yes we are, was the response from the US electorate, who overwhelmingly voted for Donald Trump to become the next US president.
Just hours after voting ended on 5 November, it became clear that Trump would serve a second term in The White House.
"This is a movement like nobody's ever seen before." Trump said as he gave his victory speech in the early hours of 6 November.
"It's the greatest political movement of all time in this country, and maybe beyond."
He promised he would "fix" US borders and "fix everything in this country".
"It's a political victory that our country has never seen before, nothing like this," he added.
"This will truly be the golden age of America. This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to make America great again."
Polls had Trump and Harris neck and neck in the days leading up to the election, but the Republican's win was decisive – and swift.
So what happened?
Is this Trump victory even more devastating for the Democrats than 2016?
Why did people vote for Trump?
Donald Trump promised to fix the US economy. He promised to remove millions of illegal immigrants. He promised to end wars in Ukraine and Gaza. He called Kamala Harris a bitch.
And it worked.
"What has been interesting is the way that Trump has successfully marshalled the arguments that Americans are better off under him than under Biden," says Jon Sopel.
"That we didn't have wars when he was the president, but we could look at what's happened in Ukraine, and look at what's happened with Hamas and Israel and the destabilising effect that has had.
"You can't prove any of those things, but Donald Trump has made that argument, and it has resonated with enough of the American people."
He has said he can end the war in Ukraine in "one day".
But, Emily Maitlis says, he won this election with the help of disinformation.
"A lot of that has been done on the back of lies," she says, while also insisting he won the vote "fairly".
"It's been done on the back of propaganda."
He has claimed migrants are eating pets in America. He's said schools are transitioning children. He has questioned Harris's ethnicity. He has called for the US military to be used on his "radical left" opponents. He has claimed Democrats weaponised the weather to make hurricanes target Republican states.
But despite all this, Harris's campaign simply couldn't match the power of MAGA.
“There is absolutely no doubt that, once again, Donald Trump's coalition has been underestimated," says Lewis Goodall.
"Kamala Harris has not been able to maintain that rainbow coalition, if you like, that Joe Biden had in 2020."
Donald Trump: The Sequel
Why and where Harris performed poorly
For Kamala Harris, the victories were in predictable states such as California and New York – but even those came with diminished margins.
“Look at what's happened in New York City, that's never going to go Republican, it was always going to be Democrat," Emily says.
"And yet, he has picked up a substantial increase in vote share in New York City. Why? I put this to a Republican guest, and they said, because of crime.
“There were voters that came out for Trump for the first time in New York. That is a pinch yourself moment.”
Alongside economic and deportation promises, he also vowed to fix crime across the US, although has not shared the specifics of how this will be achieved.
Harris took fewer votes in many states than Joe Biden did in 2020, also losing the popular vote to Trump.
Donald Trump is "on the verge of the greatest comeback in political history."
Did ethnic minority voters swing it for Trump?
There were moments where it seemed like Trump would come unstuck with ethnic minority voters – the "garbage" comments made at his New York rally, his combative appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists, his questioning of Kamala Harris' heritage..
But polling ahead of the election suggested Trump was doing well with black men across the US, while Harris struggled to cut through to these voters.
"NBC is projecting that Donald Trump will win one in three ethnic minority votes in this country," says Lewis.
"That is a substantial improvement on his 2020 performance and his 2016 performance."
There have been claims that Trump has gained huge support because of entrenched racism in US society, which he is seen by some to have legitimised, but these votes suggest this may not be the case.
"Racism does not work when you're talking about a third of ethnic minority voters," says Emily.
"It absolutely makes no sense. Is it a woman thing? I don't know.”
“As we sit here tonight,” Lewis says, “it is very clear that Trump is the American candidate across virtually every demographic group”.
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