Tory leadership race: Experts weigh in on the final candidates
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As the Tory leadership contest draws to a close, three political experts share their insights into Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, with one set to become the new leader of the opposition.
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Read time: 6 mins
In brief…
- The Conservatives will announce a new leader on 2 November, and three political experts have shared their views on the contenders – and the outcome.
- Kemi Badenoch is popular for her “refreshing” approach to politics, but dislikes the media, and her style has alienated some Tories.
- Robert Jenrick has faced criticism for his change in stance, but would offer the party a more conventional, “usual”, type of leadership.
What’s the story?
The Conservative Party will have a new leader on 2 November, and the UK will have a new leader of the opposition.
After months of campaigning and voting, with a few unexpected twists along the way, either Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will take the reins of the diminished Tories, following its defeat by Labour in this summer’s general election.
It is not, Spectator journalist Katy Balls tells The News Agents, the final two anyone expected when the leadership contest first kicked off.
"I think parts of the party will be unhappy with this final two," Balls tells Lewis Goodall.
"If you are a one-nation Tory, this is not what you wanted."
Both Badenoch and Jenrick represent the right-wing of the Conservative Party, having seen off more moderate contenders such as James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat during earlier stages of the process, as MPs voted for their favourite for leader. The final vote is taken by party members.
Lord Paul Goodman on the 'reinvention' of Robert Jenrick
What do the Tories need from their next leader?
LBC political correspondent Aggie Chambre describes the current Tory party membership as an "unknowable beast", as conversation rages on how best to deal with the rise of Reform UK – embrace a similar hard-right thinking, or move to the centre ground.
Both Badenoch and Jenrick have spoken at length about asylum seekers arriving in the UK, which Paul Goodman – a Conservative member of the House of Lords says has been a "concern" during the contest.
"What an opposition leader, a new Conservative leader has to do is really address the three big things for voters, which are economic credibility, value for money in the NHS and lower migration," he says.
Rishi Sunak, the current leader, will soon take a seat among backbenchers in the House of Commons, after leading the party since 2022.
The Tory leader will then be either the “anti-woke” advocate of free-speech or the MP determined to pull the UK out of the European Convention of Human Rights.
Why Kemi Badenoch is an 'instinctive' politician
What do we know about Kemi Badenoch?
Going into the leadership contest, Badenoch was a favourite on day one. But missteps along the way – such as comments about maternity pay in the UK having gone "too far" – have made her victory less certain.
But her "unexpected" approach to politics is her biggest strength, says Paul Goodman.
"The Conservative Party does specialise in producing leaders you might not expect," he says.
“You wouldn't normally expect a black woman born abroad to be leader of the Conservative Party, and she would bring to it a kind of fearlessness, an ability to speak her mind, and a tendency to be able to cut through and to make the news."
Badenoch has previously condemned the teaching of critical race theory in British schools, and said that Britain is the "best place to be black".
While Badenoch might be good at making the news, that doesn't mean she enjoys engaging with it.
"She doesn't love doing interviews because she sees everything in black and white, and she feels like there's this kind of ‘gotcha’ mentality," says Aggie Chambre.
"She hates doing morning rounds because she's really not a morning person."
When Emily Maitlis confronted Badenoch about her maternity pay comments at the Tory Party conference in September, she described the backlash as a "confected row".
Kemi Badenoch brushes off her previous maternity pay comments
This fiery attitude is part of what has endeared Badenoch to party members.
"In some ways, it's what people really like about her, it's why people think she is refreshing and authentic," says Katy Balls.
"They love that she is no nonsense, and she'll say it how it is, and she doesn't worry about a backlash, and then she'll take to Twitter and say why a journalist is wrong.
"But it also does mean that she has alienated some figures within the Tory party."
Balls believes Badenoch will excel at the dispatch box opposite Keir Starmer, and put the PM "under pressure" in the House of Commons.
'Kemi Badenoch is really, really not a morning person'
What do we know about Robert Jenrick?
If Badenoch is the straight talking, combative type, then Jenrick is the more orderly, conventional politician.
Goodman expects that if he wins the contest, he would “run a tighter and more usual ship as Conservative leader.
“He's very proficient, very articulate, intelligent, able and quick”, says Goodman.
One potential drawback though is that he looks like a conventional Tory. In other words, a white, middle-aged man.
“He's not going to make people look at the Tories in a new way”, Goodman notes.
Does that matter?
More in Common pollster Luke Tryl, who has been conducting focus groups with Tory members, says it might.
“You do get comments like, ‘oh, typical Tory, isn't he just more of the same?” he says.
But Chambre says Jenrick is still well liked among the membership, and people are taking note of his hard work ethic.
“Everyone slightly assumes that he is the underdog because he is doing so much, and the fact that he is just getting about three hours sleep.”
Unlike Badenoch, he has welcomed media interviews with open arms, making his pitch to the membership with a campaign centred around leaving the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR).
But the Tory-right winger has not always leaned this way.
In fact, he embarked on his political career as a One Nation Tory, a more moderate Conservative like David Cameron.
“He wasn't particularly well known when he became a junior minister. He was viewed as Robert ‘generic’, this One Nation, slightly generic person”, says Chambre.
It was not until he started working in the Home Office that his shift to the right began to unfold.
The story goes that it was here he became much more hardline on migration after seeing from the inside that things weren’t working, and so began his right-wing epiphany to pull the UK out of the ECHR.
But is his switch to the right genuine, or is he just following the Tory tide as he seeks to rise to the top?
Balls says: “I don't think it's completely inauthentic.”
Whether it is or not, it appears to be working.
Balls adds: “As the campaign has gone on, it's become increasingly clear that the bulk of his support is coming from the right of the party, and that's much more the old Tory right… and some of the new Tory right getting behind him.”
What’s The News Agents’ take?
Lewis says the job of leader of the opposition requires a very particular, supple set of political skills.
“Everything we know about Badenoch probably suggests, she doesn’t have at least some of the most important ones,” he says.
But if she could conquer them, Lewis argues Badenoch might be “the more formidable candidate with the most room to grow”.
He adds that Baednoch could perhaps throw “a more formless government, and Starmer, furthest off course”.
Jenrick, on the other hand, has offered “quite a few policy solutions which he believes would make the next Tory government more Conservative”.
The danger is that both candidates’ diagnosis is basically the same - the Conservatives “must be truer to themselves,” Lewis says.
Whoever wins, he adds there is “no doubt the Tory Party is moving to the right.”
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