Robert Jenrick’s Reform UK ‘coalition’ comments: ‘This becomes a Kemi problem’
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Reform UK are expected to win a huge number of council seats in the May local elections, taking many in traditionally Labour-voting areas, but there are suggestions that the Tories could be ready to work with their right-wing rivals to block Labour seats. Could this really happen?
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In brief…
- A new poll of more than 16,000 people in the UK suggests Reform UK will increase its share of council seats from two, to 175 in the May local elections.
- Ahead of these elections, leaked audio reveals comments from shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick talking about a “coalition” with Reform, which a Tory source has said was referring to uniting voters, not parties.
- The News Agents say that the rise of Reform could cause chaos in the UK’s political system, in which votes are spread thinly and would struggle to sustain any more than two majority parties.
What’s the story?
The UK's leading political parties are braced for their first big test since the 2024 general election – and it's not looking good for either Tories or the Labour Party.
Local elections take place on 1 May, in which councillors and mayors will be voted on across many parts of the country.
The 2024 local elections marked the beginning of a political shift in the UK, as Labour swept to victory, gaining 186 council seats, while the Conservatives lost 474.
But this time around, Reform UK is predicted to make huge gains, having claimed just two in last year's elections.
It comes as the Conservatives have once again denied a potential coalition with Reform UK.
In leaked audio from a speech given to students in March 2025, Robert Jenrick is heard stating he intended to "bring this coalition together" to prevent more vote losses to its right-wing rival.
A Tory source has since said Jenrick was referring to a coalition of voters, not of parties.
Emily Maitlis says it's a curious coincidence for the Tories that this audio has been held for over a month, and only become public just a week before the upcoming May local elections.
How will the Conservative party respond to Jenrick’s comments?
Questions have been raised over how Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch responds to the leaked Jenrick audio, and whether it could cost him his job as shadow justice secretary.
Emily says there's no chance this could happen, but says it does raise serious questions of Tory party leadership, and who's really calling the shots.
"If deals are being done with people like Nigel Farage and Kemi’s not across it, then what's the point of her being at the top of the party,” Emily says.
Jon Sopel says coverage of the leaked Jenrick audio is a blessing for the Labour Party, considering the likelihood of its own poor showing in local elections.
“The headlines are about Jenrick now, and about whether the Conservatives want to do a pact with Reform at just the time that Badenoch doesn't want it,” he says.
“This is a good Labour opportunity. This is a good Labour move a week out from an election.”
But, he believes, the Tories will likely strike back with a similar tactic in the future when Labour needs it least.
What does local election polling show?
A new survey of more than 16,000 people for More In Common predicts gains of 175 seats for Reform, 44 seats gained for the Tories and a loss of 246 for Labour – which would retain the highest number of council seats.
Most of Reform's gains are expected to happen in Labour-held areas, with the party also tipped to lose a large number of left-wing votes as people switch allegiance to Liberal Democrats and The Green Party.
What’s The News Agents’ take?
Emily describes Jenrick's comments as "obvious and pretty smart" – despite the drama it may cause within his party.
“I think what he's doing is recognising that Reform is no longer a flash in the pan. It's not something that will come and go. It's not the same party that UKIP was – a one trick pony ahead of the Brexit result,” she says.
“What he said is that his worry is that it will become a permanent, or a semi permanent, fixture on the British political scene.
“In other words, the conservatives have got to find a way of not being up against them the whole time, which doesn't necessarily mean entering a pact.”
Jon believes the Tories and Reform could enter into an agreement where each party backs the other in constituencies where either has a strong chance of beating Labour.
But this, he adds, may not work as planned due to the fragility of the UK's political system.
"Our voting system was set up for two parties and maybe a minor third party, not three or four parties – five if you include the greens.
“The votes are thinly spread, and you have no frigging idea who each seat will go to because such tiny margins could affect the outcome in hundreds of constituencies.”
Listen to the latest episode of The News Agents.
